Wall Street woke up Thursday to a mixed bag of Big Tech report cards, a Fed decision that left almost nobody satisfied, and oil markets still jumpy over the Middle East. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 34 points, or 0.07%, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.21% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose a healthier 0.50%. It’s a modest bounce after Wednesday’s rout, and traders don’t seem to be celebrating so much as catching their breath.
| Index | Futures Move (Thursday) | Wednesday’s Close | Wednesday’s Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +34 pts (+0.07%) | 51,594.14 | -1,153.18 (-2.19%) |
| S&P 500 | +0.21% | 7,316.15 | -1.52% |
| Nasdaq 100 / Composite | +0.50% | 24,442.94 | -1.74% |
Microsoft Beats, Meta Stumbles
Microsoft delivered the number investors were waiting for. Shares jumped 9% in after-hours trading once the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results crossed the wire, with Azure and the broader AI cloud business doing the heavy lifting. That’s the kind of print that quiets the “capex without payoff” crowd, at least for a day.
Meta had a rougher night. Shares fell more than 6% even though revenue of $60.8 billion beat the $60.17 billion analysts were modeling. The problem was underneath the headline: earnings per share landed at $6.18 against expectations of $7.22, and next quarter’s revenue guidance of $62.5 billion came in below the $63.15 billion Wall Street wanted. Investors have been asking Meta to show its AI spending actually converting into profit, and Wednesday’s report didn’t do that.
Zoom out and the split is now stark. Since late April, Meta is down nearly 11% and Microsoft almost 10%, both stocks walked into earnings week already bruised. One of them walked out considerably worse off.
| Metric | Microsoft (MSFT) | Meta (META) |
|---|---|---|
| After-hours stock move | +9% | -6%+ |
| Revenue vs. estimate | Beat, driven by Azure/AI cloud | $60.8B vs. $60.17B expected (beat) |
| EPS vs. estimate | Topped expectations | $6.18 vs. $7.22 expected (miss) |
| Next-quarter guidance | Not a concern; capex discipline in focus | $62.5B vs. $63.15B expected (light) |
| Stock performance since late April | ~-10% | ~-11% |
The Fed Held Rates. Bond Traders Didn’t Love It
Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee decision was the other big story, and honestly, it’s the one that hit the market harder. The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged, but three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike, a level of internal disagreement that rattled the bond market more than the equity market at first. Longer-dated Treasury yields kept climbing into Thursday, with the 30-year hitting its highest level in almost two decades. That’s the market’s way of saying it’s not convinced the Fed has inflation under control.
The Dow paid for it. The blue-chip index dropped 1,153.18 points, or 2.19%, to close at 51,594.14, its worst single-day decline since April 2025. The S&P 500 slid 1.52% to 7,316.15, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74% to 24,442.94, landing more than 10% below its all-time high. Chalk it up to a market that’s been running hot on AI enthusiasm suddenly remembering that valuations still have to be justified by cash flow.
What’s Left to Watch Today
Thursday’s calendar is packed. Weekly jobless claims and the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, land in the morning, alongside the first read on second-quarter GDP. The Dow Jones consensus has headline PCE inflation running at 3.7% year-over-year, with the core figure at 3.3%. Either number coming in hot would give the bond selloff more fuel.
After the bell, it’s Amazon and Apple’s turn, along with Mastercard, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Coinbase. Apple briefly touched a $5 trillion market cap earlier this week after passing Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable public company, so there’s a lot riding on whether that milestone holds up once the numbers are actually in. Amazon’s cloud unit, AWS, will get the same scrutiny Azure just got, investors want proof that AI infrastructure spending is translating into revenue, not just bigger capex lines.
| Time | Event |
|---|---|
| Morning | Weekly jobless claims |
| Morning | PCE price index (June) — consensus 3.7% headline, 3.3% core |
| Morning | Q2 GDP, first reading |
| Before the bell | Bristol-Myers Squibb earnings |
| After the close | Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Coinbase earnings |
Oil and the Middle East Are Still in the Mix
None of this is happening in a vacuum. Crude prices spiked earlier in the week after reports of an attempted Iranian strike on American forces, with Brent crude jumping 6.6% to $89.61 a barrel and WTI gaining 6.4% to $84.31. Prices have eased some since, but the region’s volatility is still a live risk that could push oil, and inflation expectations, right back up with little warning.
There’s also a smaller, oddly specific story worth flagging: a federal judge in Minnesota temporarily blocked the state’s first-in-the-nation ban on prediction markets, just days before it was set to take effect. Judge Katherine Menendez sided with the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket, ruling the law would likely cause irreparable harm to platform operators. It’s not a market-mover in the traditional sense, but it’s a signal that the regulatory fight over prediction markets is far from settled.
Some strategists think the recent pullback has gone far enough. J.P. Morgan’s Tactical Positioning Monitor flagged the market as “oversold enough to warrant a tactical buying opportunity,” pointing to falling bond yields, a weakening dollar, resilient corporate earnings, and easing Middle East tensions as reasons for optimism. Others aren’t so sure, Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte has noted that AI capex worries are overshadowing what’s otherwise a strong earnings season, and discretionary investor positioning has fallen back to levels last seen in early April.
Put simply: the fundamentals aren’t bad, but the market’s patience with “trust us, the AI spending will pay off eventually” is wearing thin. Microsoft just bought itself some goodwill. Meta didn’t. Whether Apple and Amazon can do what Microsoft did, or slip the way Meta did, will go a long way toward deciding if Thursday’s modest futures gain turns into a real recovery or just a pause before more selling.
Markets remain volatile heading into the back half of earnings season, and today’s PCE inflation data could easily move the needle in either direction by the closing bell.
