{"id":307147,"date":"2024-01-24T15:14:18","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T14:14:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.withinnigeria.com\/news\/?p=307147"},"modified":"2024-01-24T15:14:18","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T14:14:18","slug":"petrol-prices-to-fall-over-refineries-take-off-says-cbn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.withinnigeria.com\/news\/2024\/01\/24\/petrol-prices-to-fall-over-refineries-take-off-says-cbn\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol prices to fall over refineries\u2019 take off, says CBN"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong>Cardoso said the expected stabilisation or reduction in fuel costs is poised to have far-reaching implications across various sectors, contributing significantly to overall economic efficiency and resilience<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) petrol will moderate this year as government and private-owned refineries begin operation, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso has said.<\/p>\n<p>He spoke on Wednesday, January 24, at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos.<\/p>\n<p>Cardoso said the expected stabilisation or reduction in fuel costs is poised to have far-reaching implications across various sectors, contributing significantly to overall economic efficiency and resilience.<\/p>\n<p>While Dangote Refinery has already commenced production, the Port Harcourt Refinery is expected to begin production anytime from now.<\/p>\n<p>Cardoso said the apex bank, the Ministry of Finance and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.withinnigeria.com\/news\/2024\/01\/15\/nnpcl-to-hand-over-port-harcourt-refinery-to-private-operators\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NNPCL<\/a> have collaborated to ensure that all FX inflows are returned to the Central Bank to boost reserves accretion.<\/p>\n<p>He described the naira, which exchanges around N1,370 to the dollar at the parallel market as undervalued.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe believe that the naira is currently undervalued and, coupled with coordinated measures on the fiscal side, we will expedite genuine price discovery in the near term,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>In summary of the NESG 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos, the Chief Economist at NESG, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, listed some economic outcomes of achieving a stable and appropriate pricing of the exchange rate in Nigeria.<\/p>\n<p>The NESG report advised that stabilising the exchange rate through a functional and transparent foreign exchange market entails enhancing market liquidity through regular auctions, reducing administrative restrictions, and ensuring efficient allocation of FX reserves.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAdopting a managed float system, regulating speculative activities, and encouraging foreign investments would bolster market confidence. Besides, access to FX needs to be realigned to facilitate international trade and transactions \u2013 as such, local access needs to be to the limit of the Naira equivalent. Reinforcing monetary policies for inflation control and export diversification would promote currency stability,\u201d the report advised.<\/p>\n<p>Cardoso acknowledged the challenges facing the economy and the resistance to proposed solutions by various stakeholders, assuring that the economy is now at a turning point, and the bold reforms being undertaken across different segments of the economy, while initially challenging, are ultimately directed towards addressing these challenges in a sustainable manner.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am confident that we are already witnessing positive outcomes, and these will undoubtedly become more apparent in the near future. The dedicated and relentless efforts being made are certain to bring about significant and positive changes for our economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIndeed, recent reports from international rating agencies such as Fitch, Moody\u2019s, and commendations from multilateral banks like 3 Classified as Confidential the World Bank reflect this, with upgrades to Nigeria\u2019s ratings from stable to positive. These reports acknowledge the possible reversal of the deterioration in the country\u2019s fiscal and external position due to the authorities\u2019 reform efforts,\u201d Cardoso said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile noting the painful adjustments, they all identify a direction of travel that will unlock the much needed growth and development for our economy in the medium to long term.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He said the rising costs of food prices and volatility in the forex market will soon be addressed.<\/p>\n<p>On economic growth, he said the global economy is currently grappling with persistent challenges, including inflation and subdued growth prospects.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth outperforming expectations in 2023, it is projected to further moderate in 2024 due to tightened financial conditions, sluggish trade expansion, and reduced business and consumer confidence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a mild slowdown in global economic growth to 2.9 percent in 2024, down from the 3.0 percent growth observed in 2023, with Asia driving the majority of the projected global growth in 2024, similar to the previous year.<\/p>\n<p>He said the projections for the nation\u2019s economy paint an optimistic trajectory as the Federal Government of Nigeria anticipates real GDP growth of 3.76 percent in 2024, slightly surpassing the estimated 3.75 percent for 2023.<\/p>\n<p>The optimism, he said, was underpinned by the implementation of key government reforms set to shape the economic landscape. Foremost among the factors contributing to this positive outlook is the expectation of improved crude oil prices and production, highlighting the crucial role the oil industry is expected to play in driving economic growth.<\/p>\n<p>Cardoso said the positive outlook for Industry, Services, Agriculture, and Mining, Electricity, Gas &amp; Water Supply sub-sectors reflects the potential effect of market-based reforms through private investment and SMEs-led growth that would contribute to business improvement and confidence.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGovernment reforms in the mining and energy sub-sectors are expected to serve as a catalyst for growth and development. 3. While the potential for growth exists in 2024, each sector may encounter unique challenges and opportunities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>He said that inflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2024 due to the CBN\u2019s inflation-targeting policy, which aims to rein in inflation to 21.4 percent.<\/p>\n<p>This will be aided by improved agricultural productivity and the easing of global supply chain pressures, benefiting businesses by boosting consumer confidence and purchasing power.<\/p>\n<p>He explained that the CBN\u2019s adoption of the inflation-targeting framework involves clear communication, use of monetary policy instruments, and collaboration with fiscal authorities to achieve price stability, fostering market confidence and positively influencing consumer behaviour.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe outlook for decreasing inflation in 2024 will have a profound impact on businesses, providing a more predictable cost environment and potentially leading to lowered policy rates, stimulating investment, fueling growth, and creating job opportunities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Cardoso said the expected stability in the foreign exchange market for 2024 can be attributed to the reduction in petroleum product imports and the recent implementation of a market-determined exchange rate policy by the CBN.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis reform is designed to streamline and unify multiple exchange rates, fostering transparency and reducing opportunities for arbitrage. The resulting consistent and stable exchange rate will not only boost investor confidence but also attract foreign investment, elevating Nigeria\u2019s appeal to global investors,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Cardoso said the NESG\u2019s Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2024 emphasises the necessity of economic transformation under the central theme, \u201cEconomic Transformation Roadmap: Medium-Term Policy Priorities.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis theme underscores the requirement for a clearly outlined roadmap comprising distinct yet interconnected phases and essential policy recommendations. This resonates with me as we have just last week, launched a new 5-year Strategy for the Central Bank of Nigeria for the period 2024-2028 that provides a clear roadmap for achieving our mandates,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The NESG report explained that when exchange rates are stable, everyone is better off. Price stability supports economic growth and employment. It allows people to make more reliable plans for borrowing, saving, and expanding businesses.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDecreased volatility of the exchange rate helps to support stability in inflation, which mainly affects low-income households because they have fewer resources to protect themselves. In the situation of price stability, it helps to maintain social cohesion and stability. History has shown that episodes of high inflation tend to be associated with social unrest,\u201d the report.<\/p>\n<p>According to the report, increased capital inflows will fortify the nation\u2019s external reserves, establishing a robust defence against external shocks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis can only happen with the stability of the exchange rate. Capital inflows, comprising foreign investment, loans and remittances, elevate the reserve levels, bolstering Nigeria\u2019s financial stability and economic resilience,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n<p>The NESG report advised that in addition to nominal enhancements in revenue, the country\u2019s revenue-to-GDP ratio must reach a minimum threshold of 15 percent to substantiate the processes of economic growth and stabilisation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe country must significantly decrease its current public debt service-to revenue ratio, aiming for a reduction to less than 22 percent from the current high of 80.2 percent as of 2022. This reduction is crucial to create fiscal space, enabling the government to reallocate funds toward economic development and stability initiatives.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA moderate fiscal deficit can be a useful tool for financing essential investments and stimulating economic activity. Hence, the optimal level of fiscal deficit that supports economic growth and stability in Nigeria requires a careful balance. A fiscal deficit of less than three per cent as stipulated in the FRA 2007 is considered appropriate for the economy,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cardoso said the expected stabilisation or reduction in fuel costs is poised to have far-reaching implications across various sectors, contributing significantly to overall economic efficiency and resilience The pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) petrol will moderate this year as government and private-owned refineries begin operation, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":197787,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"2","single_blog_custom":"211693","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"0","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"1","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"0","show_prev_next_post":"0","show_popup_post":"0","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"1"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored 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