What cynics who downplay the influence and heft of Kwankwaso fail to realise is that he is no longer a lone wolf trying to make things happen all by himself in an obscure and relatively small party, he is now going to be in the company of a bigger and stronger hunting party where the political sagacity and deft machination of equally prominent and colossal figure is what is needed to forge a strong alliance and indomitable opposition
As the 2027 general elections draw near, the political gamesmanship, schemes, machinations, and politicking that usually characterise the build-up to every election have begun, with strategic alignment and the forging of new alliances happening at an intense pace. One of the developments that typifies this reality, seemingly ruffling feathers and shaking the nation’s political landscape to its core, is the imminent defection of former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
On Sunday, Kwankwaso announced his resignation from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) on whose platform he vied for the presidency in 2023 and garnered a little over a million votes winning only Kano state. The resignation of Kwankwaso from the party was not unexpected. It did not come as a surprise to many observers and commentators as recent events and occurrences in the nation’s political milieu already gave an insight into what the next action and decision of the former governor would be, with every sign pointing to his defection to the ADC this week. The defection of Kwankwaso to the party became somewhat certain after former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, visited him last week.
There is no doubt that Kwankwaso’s defection to the ADC will strengthen the party and put the opposition in a much stronger and formidable position going into the 2027 presidential poll. Unlike the 2023 presidential election where the leading opposition politicians went into the contest vying on different platforms, hence splitting their votes and creating an easy pathway for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to return to power, the coming together of the top three opposition presidential candidates in the 2023 poll under one umbrella will definitely change the calculation and dynamics of contest in 2027.
Kwankwaso is a politician of immense influence and enormous clout with a cult following that makes it easy to dictate, shape and determine electoral outcomes and bend political reality to his will particularly on his turf, Kano. Of course many will argue that this influence and power do not exceed beyond Kano state and a couple of core northern states and that to some extent is true but then Kano is one of the most important state in the country politically, socially and economically and any political party and politician that is worth his onions will like to have a man who has his hands on the pulse of such indispensable enclave and has massive influence on it on his side. Also, what cynics who downplay the influence and heft of Kwankwaso fail to realise is that he is no longer a lone wolf trying to make things happen all by himself in an obscure and relatively small party, he is now going to be in the company of a bigger and stronger hunting party where the political sagacity and influence of equally prominent and colossal figure is what is needed to forge a strong alliance and indomitable opposition.
Even the ruling party will do anything and everything to have a man like Kwankwaso within its ranks. Though APC now controls virtually all the apparatus of governance. 31 of the 36 state governors are now in the party. It also has an overwhelming majority in both legislative chambers of the national assembly and many of the critical and important public institutions that should ordinarily be independent and free from government interference have become nothing more than a plaything of the ruling party. Wrestling power from the APC may be an incredibly painstaking endeavour, some may even say it is a practically impossible task, not because the party has performed excellently and enjoys the support of preponderance of Nigerians — if anything, the opposite is the case — but because it has created a situation and condition that subvert the will of the people and makes democratic means of changing a government peacefully and amicably a near unrealistic objective.
The opposition has somewhat crossed the first hurdle of what needs to be done if they are going to stand any chance of defeating APC, which is to get anyone of monumental influence and appeal on the other side of the political divide on the same page, the second stage now will be fielding the right candidate for the presidential election. Everything the ADC and the many political gladiators that it houses seek to achieve will largely be determined by who emerges as the party’s presidential flagbearer. The party has to get this right lest it risk suffering the same fate as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has become a shadow of itself, emasculated and destroyed by the shenanigans of greedy, unprincipled and power-hungry politicians.
In the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, many Nigerians yearned for a presidential ticket of Obi/Kwankwaso because that would have been the strongest and most formidable ticket on the ballot. Certain prominent and influential figures made genuine, serious and concerted efforts to ensure such a ticket materialise but it did not happen. Ego and ambition made sure of that as both men did not want to be a running mate to the other believing they had what it took to do it alone and in doing so divided the votes of the opposition and inadvertently handed the APC victory at the polls. The agitation for this resurfaced again but with Atiku in the reckoning and with him thinking his ambition to lead the country can be actualised in 2027, the materialisation of the Obi/Kwankwaso ticket may be a tall order.
There is absolutely no doubt that Kwankwaso’s defection to the ADC is a great, monumental and crucial addition to the party and with the three leading opposition candidates in that last election who together amassed 15 million votes, the party will surely give the ruling party a run for its money. But for Kwankwaso’s influence and clout to be fully maximised and tip the scales of the presidential poll for the party, other factors have to align and this will depend on how the party decides to do things in selecting its presidential candidate.
