Many believe the presidential ticket should go to a southerner to keep the balance of power rotation between the north and south intact, which then puts Obi in pole position to clinch the ticket. But with former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, still nursing a presidential ambition and having made it abundantly clear that he will be vying for the presidency in 2023, the possibility of the presidential election being an all-southern affair began to wane like a setting sun.
When the Supreme Court on Thursday voided the status quo ante bellum order of the Appeal Court over the protracted leadership crisis of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and reinstated the David Mark-led leadership of the party, many felt the major obstacle in the way of the opposition coalition had been removed. However, another problem which could determine the unity and survival of the coalition and the ability of the opposition parties to present a united and common front going into the 2027 election looms precariously over the party.
Since the formation of the opposition coalition and its adoption of the ADC as the vehicle to use to achieve its political objectives and goal to wrest power from the All Progressives Congress (APC), the burning question has been who the party will field as its presidential candidate and how the candidate will emerge. This question became a crucial matter that needed to be answered clearly and unequivocally when Peter Obi formally joined the ADC early this year. Many believe the presidential ticket should go to a southerner to keep the balance of power rotation between the north and south intact, which then puts Obi in pole position to clinch the ticket. But with former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, still nursing a presidential ambition and having made it abundantly clear that he will be vying for the presidency in 2023, the possibility of the presidential election being an all-southern affair began to wane like a setting sun.
The Ibadan summit:
At the recently held All Opposition Political Party Leaders summit. At the summit, the opposition parties, at least the major ones, resolved that their presidential candidate would emerge through consensus instead of an arduous, cumbersome and tempestuous primary election whose outcome could leave the party divided and fractured, defeating the very purpose of the coalition in the first place. The ADC, barring any unforeseen circumstances, is expected to produce the presidential candidate that the opposition parties will adopt and the race for the ticket of the party is clearly between two men: Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, and former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi.
Obi’s unusual silence
After the summit, Obi did not make any public comment or post about the gathering on his social media pages which is quite unlike him as his social media pages are a medium through which he communicates with the public, especially his teeming supporters, and shares his views and positions on socio-economic and political happenings in the country. His decision to refrain from sharing anything about what transpired at the summit did not go unnoticed by observers and it did not take long before people started making educated guesses and conjectures about what happened at the summit.
It is gathered that the resolution at the summit to adopt consensus as the mode for selecting the party’s presidential candidate without addressing the issue of zoning or without explicitly zoning the party’s ticket to the south may have left Obi and other southern stakeholders disenchanted and aggrieved. This then meant that the appearance of a united front that the opposition coalition tried to present at the summit is built on quicksand that may not hold for long.
Reports indicate that Obi and some southern stakeholders expected the communiqué to address how the presidential ticket would be distributed. Instead, the final document focused on presenting a single candidate without defining which region that candidate would emerge from.
An insider familiar with the discussions said, “The summit ended politically as it was designed to. They did not achieve what they wanted. It ended without addressing the basic issue.”
Another source noted that the omission left key questions unanswered, particularly regarding whether northern or southern candidates would be prioritised. The uncertainty is said to have created tension between different blocs within the opposition coalition.
Cracks in the coalition wall
Some commentators and observers have opined that the decision to adopt consensus is to make it easy for Atiku to clinch the party’s presidential ticket as the defection of former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and his alignment with the Obi bloc of the party greatly changed the calculation and dynamics of intra-party politics and alliances. After Kwankwaso joined the ADC, a demand for the Obi/Kwankwaso joint ticket has gained astounding momentum in recent weeks and has become a political movement on its own. With two politicians who enjoy cult followings and organic movements, holding a direct presidential primary election will not be in the interests of the party. If the refusal of Obi to publicly acknowledge and accept the resolution of the coalition at the summit for a consensus candidate raises eyebrows, then his noticeable absence at the emergency meeting summoned by the party leadership in Abuja last week has deepened concerns.
Defection to Nigeria Democratic Congress
In light of the recent development in the ADC and with the growing sense among their teeming loyal supporters that they may have been handed the short end of the stick and schemed out of the party’s arrangement regarding who would be the flagbearer of the party, the feelers we are getting now is that barring last minutes changes and unforeseen circumstances, Obi and Kwankwaso are expected to dump the ADC with NDC being touted as their like destination.
Habibu Mohammed, spokesperson of the Kwankwasiyya movement, on Friday told newsmen that Obi and Kwankwaso will defect to NDC next week, noting the decision was sealed after a unanimous endorsement by stakeholders.
“I believe him, Peter Obi, and some others will be joining the NDC,” TheCable quoted Mohammed as saying.
Mohammed said stakeholders’ representatives from all 44 LGAs in Kano gathered at Kwankwaso’s residence on Friday around 3:30pm to weigh the options — and, in the end, spoke with one voice.
“The stakeholders have unanimously given him the go-ahead to move to the NDC,” he said. Kwankwaso, he added, is currently in Kano and is expected back in Abuja by Sunday ahead of the planned defection.
With the defection of Obi and Kwankwaso to another party imminent, the ADC and the opposition coalition as a whole will be losing a huge chunk of its national appeal and electoral value that many attached to it because of politicians like Obi and Kwankwaso. If the duo pull out of ADC, as it is increasingly likely, all the work done in the past months to build a strong and formidable opposition coalition will come to nought.
