Still, those who have followed the events and occurrences in Rivers since he became governor, particularly the brutal power tussle with his predecessor and godfather, Nyesom Wike, that characterised these events, know that the withdrawal is the final capitulation and decisive defeat in his running battle with Wike for not just the control of Rivers but the governor’s own survival in Nigeria’s politics.
On Tuesday, Fubara withdrew from the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial primary election contest. In his withdrawal speech, the governor claimed that his decision to pull out of the race and shelve his second-term ambitions was not out of weakness or cowardice, but for the sake of peace and stability in the state. Fubara may have draped his withdrawal speech in nice, lovely and flowery language that portrays him as a class act. Still, those who have followed the events and occurrences in Rivers since he became governor, particularly the brutal power tussle with his predecessor and godfather, Nyesom Wike, that characterised these events, know that the withdrawal is the final capitulation and decisive defeat in his running battle with Wike for not just the control of Rivers but the governor’s own survival in Nigeria’s politics.
In late 2024, when governor Fubara openly defied Wike and drew the attention of Nigerians to how the latter has been making it extremely difficult for him to govern the state and deliver on his promises to the people with his unreasonable demands, which included the diversion of a sizeable chunk of the state monthly allocation to Wike’s account, many thought the governor had finally summoned the courage to extricate himself from the grip and chokehold of the FCT minister and forge his own path in politics and governance. But what followed was a litany of crises and quagmires that tested the resolve, determination and patience of both men. But in the fight and power tussle that their political standoff engendered, only one winner can emerge. And with the withdrawal of Fubara from the governorship race, it is easy to tell who the winner is: Wike.
The decision of Fubara to withdraw from the APC governorship primary is a confirmation of what many predicted would be his fate after all his loyalists were disqualified during the screening for the state House of Assembly primary election last week. When the rift between Wike and Fubara became a full blown vicious power tussle, many who were sympathetic to the governor felt he did not have the political and social capital to take on a calculating and ruthless politician like Wike who does not only have the immense political influence and massive financial war chest to wear out a political neophyte like Fubara but also have the the eyes and ears of the top echelon of the judiciary and in Nigeria that is tantamount to owning the ranch instead of getting a cut of the beef.
Also, the belief of many at the time, which turned out to be a prescient observation, was that anyone who proved important and somewhat indispensable to President Bola Tinubu would get his backing and would be the one to win the battle for control of the state. Wike, having contributed to the victory of Tinubu at the polls in 2023, was expected to get the backing of the president. So it happened that in March 2025, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers and announced the suspension of Fubara and the state House of Assembly.
In September, after the six-month suspension expired, the governor and the state lawmakers returned to office. But while the crisis and tension that led to their suspension may have simmered, the political manoeuvring and gamesmanship have remained, even intensified. No sooner had the legislators returned to the office than they defected to the APC. They were soon followed by Fubara. While the lawmakers may have moved to the APC at the behest of Wike, that may not be the case for Fubara. And for a time, many felt the defection of Fubara to the APC may have put him back in the driver’s seat and given him an upper hand in the crisis.
Fubara, realising that the PDP has been severely emasculated by Wike and his cohorts, had decided to defect to the APC where he believes he can get the cover and protection from overbearing and domineering Wike. The move means that he is no longer in the shadows of Wike, who wields immense influence in the PDP and would have thwarted whatever plans he has to return for a second term. Fubara knows that with APC, he will likely be protected by the upper echelon of the party, which will insulate him from the shenanigans and crude antics of Wike.
Wike has been ostensibly unsettled by the defection of Fubara to the APC, as the reality of Fubara’s likelihood of securing the APC gubernatorial ticket for the 2027 election and ultimately winning a second term stares him in the face. So momentous is Fubara’s defection that it put Wike and high-ranking members of the APC on a collision course as seen in his war of words with the national secretary of the party, Senator Bashiru Ajibola, who warned him to stay away from the internal affairs of the APC as he is not a member of the party. The problem here is that a lot has changed between last year and now.
The PDP he wields so much power over has been decimated by infighting and division. Many had thought Wike does not wield any influence in the APC, and if he does, it is insignificant and infinitesimal, not enough to trouble Fubara, who is said to enjoy the backing of heavyweights in the APC. Observers and commentators felt that whatever influence he has in the APC does not go beyond his access to Tinubu. He lacks any real power to influence the decision-making process of the party especially in the area of gubernatorial candidature.
Also, many thought Fubara had overcome the worst and emerged from the political crisis stronger after the move by the Rivers State House of Assembly to impeach him in January did not succeed. Of course, no one is under illusion as to what this impeachment move is all about. It is the crude and naked moves by Wike to consolidate his power in the state and remove the threat to the dynasty and hegemony he is trying to build by turning Rivers into his personal fiefdom.
Whether the impeachment plot is to scare and rattle Fubara and remind him of who is truly in charge and what is at stake or it is part of a calculated, deliberate and ruthless move to get rid of him once and for all, is besides the point, the obvious thing here is that Wike did not leave anything to chance. He wanted to cut out the threat posed by Fubara at the root before it morphs into an untamable and uncontrollable monster that he believed he would become once he gets a second term and he eventually achieves that.
However, in Nigeria and many other places, when it comes to politics things aren’t always as they seem and the more you look the less you see. Things move fast in Nigeria’s political scene and major actors in the arena align with who they think and feel can help achieve their objectives, despite key APC stakeholders assuring Fubara of his re-election and protection, the governor’s inability to worm his way into the heart of the president and make himself important and reliable to the president was his undoing. Sources familiar with the crisis disclosed that Tinubu sees Wike as a dependable ally despite his brute and crude ways of doing and views him as someone who will play a key role in his re-election bid.
They disclosed that Tinubu was not ready to cast off Wike after what he did for him. 2023 in favour of Fubara, whom he sees as a lily-livered and uninspiring character who has no skin in the game game and it is for this reason that all Wike’s loyalists were cleared to participate in the 2027 election and his associate, Ogundu Kingsley Chinda, also emerged as the governor candidate of the APC in Rivers.
