RIVAL WATCH: Opposition crises cast doubt on ADC, NDC’s 2027 prospects

NDC and ADC logo

As preparations intensify for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, growing internal disputes within the African Democratic Congress and the Nigeria Democratic Congress have raised concerns about the readiness of the two opposition parties to mount a strong challenge against the ruling All Progressives Congress.

Although Nigeria currently has 21 registered political parties, the ADC and NDC are widely viewed as the opposition platforms with the greatest potential to influence the presidential contest due to the political profiles of their leading figures.

Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who contested under a different platform in the 2023 presidential election, is now the presidential candidate of the ADC, while former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, flies the flag of the NDC.

The two politicians collectively secured more votes than President Bola Tinubu during the 2023 presidential election, a development that has continued to fuel expectations among supporters of both parties.

However, political observers note that electoral competitiveness depends not only on popular candidates but also on strong party institutions capable of managing internal processes effectively.

ADC grapples with leadership and primary disputes

The ADC began the political cycle with expectations of broad opposition cooperation but later experienced significant changes following the departure of key figures, including Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, to the NDC.

Despite retaining notable political figures such as Atiku Abubakar, David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, the party has faced persistent disagreements over leadership and organisational control.

Court actions linked to rival claims within the party resulted in temporary administrative setbacks earlier in the year before subsequent judicial decisions restored the recognition of some leaders.

Fresh uncertainty emerged after a Federal High Court ruling directing the Independent National Electoral Commission to deregister the ADC and three other parties over claims relating to registration requirements.

Although the party is expected to challenge the judgement at higher courts, legal proceedings concerning leadership, conventions and registration remain ongoing.

The ADC’s internal difficulties deepened after its presidential primary, where Atiku emerged as the party’s candidate amid objections from former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, and another aspirant.

The dissatisfied aspirants alleged irregularities and disenfranchisement during the exercise, thereby creating fresh divisions within the party.

In a move interpreted by some analysts as a reconciliation effort, the ADC later announced Amaechi as its vice-presidential candidate.

Beyond the presidential contest, disputes arising from governorship and legislative primaries have surfaced in states including Rivers, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Kano, Benue and Adamawa.

The disagreements have delayed the release of the party’s comprehensive candidate list, with appeals and complaints still being reviewed weeks after the primaries concluded.

The National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, said efforts were underway to address pending issues before finalising candidates.

“We have time, and we will do the needful once this process is over,” he said.

NDC confronts challenges of rapid expansion

The NDC, which secured registration in February 2026, quickly attracted attention following the arrival of several prominent political figures.

Peter Obi emerged as the party’s presidential candidate, while Rabiu Kwankwaso joined the ticket as the vice-presidential nominee.

Although the party completed its primaries in May, complaints over the conduct of the exercises have continued to emerge from different states.

The party has also experienced friction with sections of the Obidient Movement, a support base associated with Obi’s political rise.

Concerns over appointments and the treatment of some supporters contributed to tensions between party officials and members of the movement.

The disagreement intensified after former Bayelsa State Governor, Seriake Dickson, criticised elements of the movement and urged greater respect for the party structure.

Following a meeting with Obi on June 12, Dickson announced that outstanding concerns had been addressed through dialogue.

He stated that they had “amicably resolved all the issues” and urged members to “stop the bickering and name-calling,” and to focus on 2027.

Despite reconciliation efforts, the NDC still faces the challenge of converting popular support into effective structures across Nigeria’s 774 local government areas.

Differences over power-sharing arrangements and organisational control have also generated disagreements among stakeholders in some states.

Questions have additionally emerged regarding procedural issues surrounding candidate submissions, particularly in Abia State, where concerns were raised over the handling of nomination documents.

The party’s spokesperson, Osa Director, recently sought to clarify the situation by distancing the organisation from unofficial lists circulating in public spaces.

He stated that the party had not “released any official results of its primary elections in any state.”

Deadline pressure and wider implications

Neither the ADC nor the NDC had released a complete list of candidates as of Monday, although both still have time before the submission deadlines established by INEC.

Under the commission’s timetable, access to the nomination portal begins on June 27, while submissions for presidential and National Assembly candidates close on July 11.

Analysts note that unresolved appeals, leadership disagreements and competing claims could generate further legal disputes if not addressed before the deadlines.

INEC has repeatedly maintained that it does not interfere in internal party matters and relies on official records, party constitutions and valid court judgements when processing submissions.

The commission’s position means that any unresolved disagreements after nominations may ultimately be determined through litigation.

Constitutional lawyer and political analyst, Chima Nnaji, warned that unresolved internal disputes could create legal complications capable of affecting candidates and parties alike.

Experiences from previous electoral cycles have demonstrated that internal party disagreements can produce consequences extending beyond party structures and into the wider electoral process.

As both opposition parties move closer to the nomination deadline, their ability to resolve disputes, strengthen internal cohesion and present unified platforms may prove critical to their prospects in the 2027 elections.

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