While the official inflation rate has declined continuously after the base point and method of measurement was rebased last year, the consensus among many ordinary Nigerians is that these gains have not translated into material improvements in their lives
Nigeria’s inflation has slowed down again as the headline inflation rate dropped to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, from 15.39 per cent in August.
The National Bureau of Statistics made this known on Thursday. It is the fourth consecutive month that inflation has recorded a downward trend. On a year-on-year basis, the rate represents 6.35 percentage points below the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025. On a month-on-month basis, prices climbed by just 0.06 per cent in September, compared with 0.71 per cent in August. Prices are still going up, but at an exceedingly slower pace than before.
The main reason for the drop in the September rate is food. Food prices fell by 1.55 per cent in September, after rising 1.02 per cent in August. The NBS attributed the drop to downward price changes in staples like grains, rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, vegetables, potatoes, plantain and tomatoes.
Year-on-year food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent, down from 20.16 per cent in September last year. Averaged over the last 12 months, food inflation was 15.72 per cent, far below the 28.37 per cent recorded a year earlier.
The slight appreciation of the naira may have played a role. It strengthened to N1,333 per dollar on October 14, the day before the report. Analysts have said the naira is undervalued at the current exchange rate to the dollar. A stable and stronger currency backed by productivity in the economy can also slow down inflation, though the NBS did not link the inflation figures to naira appreciation.
However, the headline number conceals some uncomfortable details. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, rose by 1.11 per cent month-on-month in September, after a 0.06 per cent drop in August. Its annual rate of 12.95 per cent is much lower than the 22.11 per cent of the preceding year. Even so, the monthly jump suggests that underlying price pressures picked up.
Meanwhile, Urban inflation stood at 15.64 per cent year-on-year, and prices in cities rose faster in September, by 0.53 per cent against 0.28 per cent in August. Rural inflation was lower at 12.46 per cent, and rural prices fell by 0.89 per cent on the month, after rising 1.79 per cent in August.
An easing inflation rate does not mean prices are dropping sharply. It means they are rising more slowly. An item that cost N10,000 in September last year would, at the current food inflation rate, cost about N11,959 today.
Reprieve will come only if the decline persists. The September fall was anchored on a monthly drop in food prices, and such falls can reverse, especially if harvests, transport costs or the exchange rate change. If core prices keep rising at the September pace, the gains on food could be wiped out.
Also, while the official inflation rate has declined continuously after the base point and method of measurement was rebased last year, the consensus among many ordinary Nigerians is that these gains have not translated into material improvements in their lives. Despite a consecutive four-month decline in inflation, prices of basic commodities and staple items are still way higher than they were in 2023 when the current government came to power. Household consumption is almost non-existent, purchasing power is painfully low and disposable income has been wiped out by the extensive and aggressive neoliberal economic policies of the government.
The inflation figure paints optimistic and encouraging pictures, but the reality of everyday Nigerians tells a different story, a forlorn, bleak and uninspiring one. While inflation slows marginally on paper, Nigerians contend with a crippling cost of living crisis in real life. Many Nigerians need to feel this positive inflationary trajectory in their pockets and on their shopping bills before we can celebrate.
