In an enclave like ours, where election results are hotly disputed, it is not impossible that voter registration, which informs the spread of the potential electorate, will be skewed in favour of a section, to the exclusion of another.
The year 2027 is a most momentous and foreboding one for people and the country. Nigerians’ indifference and, some will say, opposition to Mr President’s re-election. The north’s strident claim of marginalisation. Intra and inter-party squabble. The unscrupulous and shady gale of defections. The devil-may-care aura of desperados in the political space and the citizenry’s misgivings about the Independent National Electoral Commission’s capacity to conduct credible elections all add up to raise fears and anxieties.
INEC’s rectitude or integrity, despite all of these unfolding events, remains key. The electoral body arguably does not measure up in the estimation of the electorate, more so in the build-up to the general elections and no one can blame Nigerians for their distrust of INEC after the conduct of the 2023 elections and subsequent polls. It is no longer news that INEC has begun continuous voter registration across the country. However, a curious disparity sticks out like a sore thumb in the said exercise.
A week after the CVR began, nearly 400,000 people have reportedly registered in Osun alone. This has raised eyebrows among stakeholders. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) described the figure as “statistically implausible”. A cursory look at the numbers so far by geopolitical zones shows that 848,359 have registered in the south-west, 142,532 in the north-central, 141,439 in the northwest, 77,652 in the north-east, 59,676 in the south south and 1,998 in the southeast.
Putting things in percentages will better help understand the magnitude of these head-turning figures; the South West alone accounts for an astonishing 67 per cent of total national pre-registrations. To further put things in perspective, three states—Osun, Lagos, and Ogun—account for 54.2 per cent of pre-registrations in Nigeria, while five states combined—Ebonyi, Imo, Enugu, Abia, and Adamawa—barely recorded 4,153, or 0.2 per cent, while the entire North East recorded just 6.1 per cent.
These figures have sparked concerns and rightly so. The worries and perplexity of those who wonder how nearly 20 per cent of all eligible adults in a state like Osun have hurriedly registered — when it has never had more than 823,124 total votes cast in the Governorship Election — cannot be dismissed. These doubts and pessimism will do nothing to enhance the already sullied image of INEC.
If these are to be the sign-posts of a so-called imminent credible general election in our fledgling democracy, then we are in the wrong classroom. Mutual suspicion and distrust are gospels in a country like ours, which is in perpetual denial. In an enclave like ours, where election results are hotly disputed, it is not impossible that voter registration, which informs the spread of the potential electorate, will be skewed in favour of a section, to the exclusion of another.
With some eighteen months to go to the polls, the need to clarify and address this disequilibrium could not be over-emphasized. It is not out of place to ask about the portfolio distribution at the INEC. It is observed that all the major committees of the electoral umpire are manned by a particular section of the country. Logistics, operations, procurement, finance and general purpose, ICT, political monitoring and human resources are all headed by southerners.
Opposition cannot be said to be crying wolf in the face of these shocking anomalies. It behoves INEC to address these issues raised calm frayed nerves, douse tensions and repair its battered image. The trouble is that many folks who are wont to chant – “it is well” after a deed has been done or when the horse has bolted, wake up too late in the day, to make amends. A black goat is always sought in the daytime. We have been in it for too long.