Political activities within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos are gradually intensifying as stakeholders begin early calculations ahead of the 2027 governorship election.
The contest within the ruling party is evolving around issues of administrative competence, loyalty to party structure, and the long-standing practice of consensus candidate selection.
Despite its history of dominance in the state since 1999, the party is approaching the next election cycle with increased caution following developments in the 2023 general elections.
The loss of the presidential vote in Lagos to the Labour Party has remained a reference point in discussions among party leaders.
Party stakeholders have linked the outcome to internal disagreements, the aftermath of the #EndSARS protests, and shifting voter behaviour.
Although the party retained control of the governorship seat, the outcome exposed areas of concern within its traditional support base.
The chairman of the Lagos APC, Cornelius Ojelabi, described the coming election as a critical moment for the party.
“You are coming on board at a very critical period, a period when we are very close to the emergence of our candidates for the 2027 election,” he said.
“All eyes are on us, and the question they are asking is: are we going to change the narrative?” he added.
He emphasised the need for unity across party structures at the state and local levels.
“That particular question should preoccupy our minds, and it is a task that must be done collectively,” he said.
In recent months, political mobilisation around the second-term ambition of the president, Bola Tinubu, has also gained attention within the state.
Several political figures have organised events and campaigns in support of the president, while also being linked to governorship ambitions.
A rally held at the Nigeria Police College in Ikeja drew participation from various groups mobilising support for the president’s re-election.
Similar activities have taken place across different parts of the state, including meetings and public gatherings organised by party leaders.
The speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudasiru Obasa, also convened an interfaith gathering to mark the president’s birthday.
At the event, stakeholders highlighted the need for continuity in governance at the national level.
The former governor of Lagos State, Akinwunmi Ambode, and the chief of staff to the governor, Tayo Ayinde, were among those who spoke at the gathering.
They urged support for the president’s second-term bid and emphasised the importance of sustaining existing policies.
Observers note that such activities are also linked to subtle expressions of political ambition within the party.
A party chieftain stated that open declaration of interest is often avoided in Lagos politics.
“No two elections are the same,” he said.
He added that excessive publicity around ambition could affect a candidate’s chances within the party structure.
Only a few individuals have publicly declared interest in the governorship race.
One of them is Olajide Adediran, who has indicated his intention to contest under the platform of the APC.
Other potential aspirants have continued consultations with stakeholders across the state.
Names mentioned in political discussions include the deputy governor, Obafemi Hamzat, the minister of education, Tunji Alausa, and the chief of staff to the president, Femi Gbajabiamila.
Others are the principal secretary to the president, Hakeem Muri-Okunola, and Seyi Tinubu.
Opposition figures have also begun early positioning ahead of the election.
The former Labour Party governorship candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has joined the African Democratic Congress and signalled interest in contesting again.
Other individuals from opposition parties have also indicated interest, although their activities remain limited.
Since 1999, political parties aligned with Bola Tinubu have consistently produced governors in Lagos.
The progression has moved from the Alliance for Democracy to the Action Congress, Action Congress of Nigeria, and now the APC.
This continuity has reinforced the party’s influence over political structures in the state.
However, analysts note that opposition parties face internal divisions that could affect their performance.
A political science lecturer at Lagos State University, Moshood Babatunde, commented on the situation.
“The future of opposition parties still seems bleak in Nigeria,” he said.
“The new African Democratic Party doesn’t have a strong footing in Nigeria, and Lagos specifically,” he added.
Another academic, Sylvester Akhaine, noted that political control in Lagos is largely tied to party machinery.
“Currently, he holds a trump card by virtue of his control of central authority,” he said.
Within the APC, the process of selecting a candidate has historically followed a consensus model.
The Governor’s Advisory Council plays a key role in screening and recommending candidates.
A member of the council, Muraina Taiwo, explained that discussions on the governorship have not yet been concluded.
“The name Hamzat being mentioned is possible, but the GAC has not reached a consensus on a candidate,” he said.
He added that deliberations would continue before a final decision is made.
Zoning considerations have also emerged as part of the discussions.
Some stakeholders advocate for the candidate to emerge from the Lagos East Senatorial District.
They argue that the district has had fewer opportunities compared to other zones.
Potential candidates from the district include Akinwunmi Ambode, Obafemi Hamzat, and Tokunbo Abiru.
Others mentioned are Tunji Alausa, Tayo Ayinde, and Tokunbo Wahab.
At the same time, stakeholders from Lagos West have also indicated interest in producing the next governor.
Names associated with the zone include Mudasiru Obasa, Olajide Adediran, Samuel Ajose, and Seyi Tinubu.
Supporters from Badagry have also advocated for representation from their area.
They argue that the area has not previously produced a governor.
Religious considerations have also been discussed, although some stakeholders downplay their importance.
A party member stated that governance capacity remains the primary factor.
“Merit is important; good governance has nothing to do with religion,” he said.
Observers have also pointed to the possibility of an unexpected candidate emerging.
A party stakeholder noted that previous selections have often surprised observers.
“No one who has on his own thrown his hand into the ring has ever emerged,” he said.
He added that the process often produces candidates not widely anticipated.
As consultations continue and political alignments evolve, the process of selecting a candidate remains ongoing.
The outcome is expected to shape the direction of the party in Lagos ahead of the 2027 governorship election.
