Be that as it may, it’s easy for a dispassionate mind and an objective bystander who analyses events in the nation’s political terrain through the lens of objectivity to tell where our democracy is headed.
As we hurtle precariously towards the 2027 general elections, many Nigerians are increasingly consumed by a deep sense of foreboding over the future of the nation’s democracy. This disconcerting feeling is spurred by the direction governance, election, politics and politicking have taken since 2023, from the blatant rigging of elections and the courts’ affirmation of these sham polls to the brazen and troubling wave of defection from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress. These defections have triggered uncomfortable discussions about Nigeria’s gradual descent into a one-party state.
Tellingly, these days, the discourse about the state of democracy in Nigeria is as polarising as it is polemical. A coterie of leading figures in the opposition parties has repeatedly raised alarm over the nation’s slide into authoritarianism and a one-party state. The president and his party have dismissed the concerns of the opposition and reiterated their commitment to the strengthening of democracy. Be that as it may, it’s easy for a dispassionate mind and an objective bystander who analyses events in the nation’s political terrain with the lens of objectivity to tell where our democracy is headed.
Nigeria’s politicians are migratory in nature and move to where their goals can be realised and their interests can be protected. While a few of them have personal exemplary dispositions and creeds that can’t be compromised on, the majority are influenced by the inordinate quest for power and primitive acquisition of wealth, and where these two can be guaranteed is where you will find them.
During the 2023 general elections, APC won 16 States, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won ten states, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won one state and the Labour Party won one. Out of the five off-cycle elections that were held between 2023 and 2024, APC won four and PDP won one, taking the number of states controlled by APC to 20 and that under PDP to Eleven. The gubernatorial election of Anambra State, which is currently governed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) will be held next month.
Since the 2023 general elections, the PDP has suffered a decline in political fortunes, aside from being dogged by perennial internal wrangling and leadership crisis, it has lost states in regions, the Niger Delta and the South East, that used to be its stronghold. It lost Edo State to the APC, albeit in a controversial governorship election. The governor of Delta State, Sheriff F. O. Oborevwori, has dumped the party for the APC. The latest to join the exodus from the party to the APC is the governor of Enugu State, Peter Mba. The feelers we’re getting now are that Taraba State governor, Agbu Kefas, will also be leaving the PDP soon.
These defections are not only happening at the executive arm of government at the state level, but the jarring consolidation of power and further undermining of the opposition is more pronounced and brazen in the national assembly. Despite being in the minority in the House of Representatives and having a slim majority in the Senate when the 10th assembly was inaugurated in 2023, an avalanche of defection of opposition lawmakers to the APC has seen the ranks of the party at the national assembly, and now controls both legislative chambers.
At the start of the 10th National Assembly, the Senate’s composition was: APC – 59 seats; PDP – 36; Labour Party (LP) – 8; Social Democratic Party (SDP) – 2; NNPP – 2; All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – 1; and Young Progressives Party (YPP) – 1.
Following the recent defections, the Senate configuration now stands at: APC – 73 seats; PDP – 28; LP – 1; SDP – 2; NNPP – 1; APGA – 2.
In the House of Representatives, at the onset of the 10 assembly, the APC held 175 seats; PDP – 118; LP – 35; NNPP – 19; APGA – 5; ADC – 2; SDP – 2; YPP – 1; while three seats were vacant. Collectively, the opposition held 182 seats—more than the APC.
Today, a wave of defection from many of the opposition lawmakers has seen the opposition’s total number drop to about 148.
These defections may bestow some level of political invincibility on the APC but it portends serious danger for our democracy. Even more concerning is the fact that the interests of the people who voted these detecting politicians into office are not taken into account in their political migration. This cross-carpeting is motivated by a selfish agenda and is done to advance the abhorrent and selfish goal.
Opposition parties are the pillars of any democratic society; they not only check the excesses of the ruling party, but they also serve as a bulwark against totalitarianism and dictatorship, and they are the palladium of civil liberty, giving the people a viable alternative when they become disillusioned with the ruling party. The absence of virile and active opposition fuels impunity, erodes democratic values and hampers the socio-economic progress of a nation.
Having said that, what will become of Nigeria is clear and simple if a ruling political party that, under a somewhat normal and ideal democratic setting, has not been able to deliver the dividends of democracy to the people, has performed abysmally and disastrously on every socio-economic index, and has repeatedly shown dictatorship tendencies, is allowed to turn the country into a one-party state. If Nigeria should become a one-party state under the APC, what you will get is not the economic prosperity of China or any other well-run, orderly and thriving one-party state, its world-class infrastructure, its selfless leaders and its happy and thriving citizens. What you will get is a brutal police state where the rights of the citizens are violated, and the words of those in power are the Constitution. What you will get is a repressive and draconian state that will not hesitate to crush dissent or unleash violence and terror on vocal opposition voices. What you will get is more economic hardship and crippling inflation.
I’m sure Nigerians, having lived under the rulership of the APC for a decade, are perfectly aware of the danger a one-party state portends for them and the nation, and they will surely avert the nation’s descent into such a catastrophic arrangement.