But these speculations were seen as nothing more than negligible hearsay and the product of idle chatter. Over time, the conjectures about Jonathan’s next political move began to take a life of their own, morphing into consequential developments that bring fresh twists to unfolding political intrigues that could shape the nation’s future leadership.
With the politicking and gamesmanship ahead of the 2027 presidential election entering high gear, events in the political space are unfolding at a pace many observers, commentators and analysts are finding it hard to keep up with. As we race towards 2027 and political actors and entities manœuvre and meander through the treacherous and perilous political landscape, one name that has returned to public discourse is Goodluck Jonathan.
Since leaving office in 2015, there has been no election cycle in which the former president’s name has not been mentioned in national discourse. It often dominates media reportage. Subsequent presidential elections have been coloured by the correctness and legality of former president Goodluck Jonathan throwing his hat in the electoral ring again for the presidency. There are arguments for and against his quest to vie for the presidency and return to Aso Rock for a second term. This contentious discourse has once again been revived as preparations for the 2027 general election enter top gear.
Last October, a chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Jerry Gama, announced that Jonathan would contest the 2027 presidential election on the party’s platform. Since then, speculation has been rife about the possibility of Jonathan vying for the presidency in 2027, but these speculations have been viewed as nothing more than negligible hearsay and the product of idle chatter. Over time these conjectures about Jonathan’s next political move began to take a life of their own as they morphed into consequential developments that bring fresh twists and new developments to unfolding political intrigues that could shape the nation’s future leadership.
Last week, Jonathan was cleared by the Saminu Turaki-led faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to buy the party’s form and contest for its presidential primary election, if at all there will be any. For PDP, offering its platform for the former president to contest for the presidency in 2027 may be a sound, logical and strategic move to slowly build up the crisis-ridden party and shore up its battered image as it tries to endear itself to Nigerians again and worm its way back to their heart.
However, while Jonathan may come across as a formidable candidate for the PDP who can oust the incumbent in next year’s presidential election and aside from the furore about the legality of his contestation for a second term in office, there is growing concern among many Nigerians if it is prudent or smart move for him to contest again giving or things have changed in the Nigerian political landscape since he left office.
The majority of Nigerians if not all are now feverishly nostalgic about the Jonathan government as, with the benefit of hindsight, they now see it as the halcyon period and era of prosperity when compared to the depressing, harsh and dehumanising socio-economic realities they are now grappling with. While many will give an arm and a leg to see the country return to the way it was under Jonathan, such a wish is at best a pipe dream and a tall order and at worst an unrealistic objective.
Jonathan is not particularly known for his political sagacity and shrewd gamesmanship. While he is a decent public administrator and quite electable, he does not possess the ruthless disposition and vicious streak that many characters in politics need to wheel and deal, to manoeuvre and meander their way through the treacherous and unforgiving political landscape. Also whatever clout, influence and appeal he had when he was in office has been eroded by over a decade of public office hiatus.
Since he left office in 2015, other politicians have burst onto the scene. These new entrants have not only taken the centre stage in Nigerian politics but changed the rules of the game and have somehow managed to inspire hope in many distressed, forlorn, disenchanted and much-tried citizens and Nigerians have now coalesced around these politicians as they see them as an embodiment of everything good and right about this nation. They see them as the only ones who can stop the country’s decline and pull it back from the edge of the precipice. These politicians are former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Many of those who fantasise about Jonathan’s second bid, especially in the southern and middle belt of the country where Jonathan had a significant following and sizeable support, will likely not vote for him as they have since cut the political umbilical cord that tied them to him and are now staunch supporters and followers of Obi. Of course, he will definitely garner considerable votes in a couple of states and likely eat into the votes of other leading candidates but this will not be enough to catapult him to Aso Rock again. So with this unpalatable and unfavourable reality, many wondered why Jonathan would choose to participate in an election that he stood no chance of winning.
The consensus among many political analysts and commentators is that Jonathan does not have what it takes to win the presidential election in 2027 and the loss may do more damage to his reputation and standing as a consummate Democrat not just Nigeria but the African continent as many believe he should remain a passionate advocate for democratic rule and credible and free elections than participate in an election that will likely not meet the global acceptable standards that he has relentlessly championed in other African nations he has served as electoral observer
With every prediction, projection and objectives analysis pointing to defeat for him at the polls should he proceed to contest, one then wonders why he would want to subject himself to such a humiliation ritual or is his candidacy going to be part of a grand strategy and elaborate scheme by certain persons to achieve a predetermined outcome at the polls? Whatever the case is, events in the coming months will provide a clearer picture of what the real goal and endgame is for our dear uncle Joe and objectively gauge the rationale behind after then we will be able to determine if it’s a painful folly or a costly gamble.
