- Urama noted that the growth rebound will be driven by East Africa, with an increase of 3.4 percentage points
- Average growth is expected to decline from 3.7% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 for oil exporting countries
Nigeria and other West African countries are expected to see their growth rates rise from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. This projection was shared by Kevin Urama, the Vice-President and Chief Economist of the African Development Bank (AfDB), during the African Economic Outlook 2024 event on Thursday.
The announcement was made at the bank’s 2024 Annual Meetings in Nairobi, Kenya. The event’s theme was “Driving Africa’s Transformation: The Reform of the Global Financial Architecture.”
Urama highlighted that West Africa’s growth is set to increase, moving from an estimated 3.6% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024, and further solidifying at 4.4% in 2025. This marks a 0.3 percentage point increase over the January Macro Economic Outlook (MEO) projections, driven by stronger growth in major economies like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal.
He emphasized that African economies have shown resilience despite multiple challenges, with average growth expected to stabilize at 4.0% in 2024-2025, up from 3.1% in 2023. The average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed from 4.1% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023, primarily due to high food and energy prices stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Other contributing factors include climate change, extreme weather affecting agriculture and power generation, and political instability in some countries. However, real GDP growth is projected to rise to 3.7% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, surpassing the 4.1% recorded in 2022.
Urama noted that the growth rebound will be driven by East Africa, with an increase of 3.4 percentage points, and Southern and West Africa, each rising by 0.6 percentage points. In 2024, 40 countries are expected to show higher growth than in 2023, with 17 economies projected to grow by more than 5%, potentially increasing to 25 by 2025. Africa is set to retain its position as the second fastest-growing region after Asia in 2024-2025, with GDP growth exceeding the global average of 3.2% in 2024.
For oil-exporting countries, average growth is expected to decline from 3.7% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, but it may rise to 4% in 2025. This slowdown in 2024 is due to lower oil production targets set by OPEC and issues such as the vandalism of an oil pipeline in South Sudan and uncertainties surrounding Angola’s oil exports after leaving OPEC.
In contrast, growth in non-oil resource-intensive economies is projected to improve significantly from 0.3% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, and stabilize at 3.3% in 2025. This sharp increase is mainly due to a rebound in China’s demand for metals and minerals, driven by expansions in smart grids and construction activities.
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