In any nation of the world, the performance of any leader, be it a democratic or military leader or a monarchy, is often measured and judged by the standard of living of their people which is always determined by how the said leader manages the economy of his nation.
History and posterity are always kind to leaders who can address the challenges that hinder the growth of their nation and the prosperity of their people. Leaders who grow and build a thriving economy that puts their nation on the global map get to have their indelible mark etched in the sands of time.
A leader whose reign or tenure ushered in economic boom and prosperity is spoken of with fondness and nostalgia, while a leader whose time in office heralded economic downturn, austerity and crippling inflation incurs the wrath of the people and is spoken about with resentment, treated with scorn and consigned to the dustbin of history.
One of the key issues that featured prominently in national discourse in the build-up to the 2023 presidential election was the economy; Nigerians were eager to know the plan of presidential candidates for job creation, growth of the economy, stabilize the exchange rate, reduce inflation, and improve government revenues.
As President Bola Tinubu marks his second year in office, we take a look at how his government has performed in these critical areas. We are also going to compare the economic performance of his administration to that of his predecessors since 1999.
Since the commencement of the fourth republic in 1999, Nigeria has had five presidents. Three are from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while two, the immediate past and the incumbent presidents, are from the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The presidents’ tenure from 1999 to date is given below:
Olusegun Obasanjo – 29th May 1999 to 29th May 2007 (PDP)
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua – 29th May 2007 to 5th May 2010 (PDP)
Goodluck Ebele Jonathan – 6th May 2010 to 29th May 2015 (PDP)
Muhammadu Buhari – 29th May 2015 to 2023 May (APC)
Bola Tinubu – 29th May 2023 – to date
Below is an analysis of how Nigeria fared under the past four administrations and how it’s faring under Tinubu based on the Inflation Rate, External Reserve, Non-oil export, Exchange Rate, GDP Growth Rate, and Public Debt Profile.
- Inflation rate
The rising inflation rate has been the Nigerian economy major albatross for a very long time and has recently been a topical issue, given the continued rise in the prices of goods and services in the country and across the globe
Nigeria’s inflation rate stood at 23.71% in April 2025 down from 24.23% recorded in March, according to data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The April figure represented a decline of 0.52 in inflation rate.
According to the NBS, “On a year -on-year basis, headline inflation rate was 9.99% lower than the 33.69% recorded in April 2024. This shows that the year-on-year inflation rate decreased in April 2025 compared to the same period last year, though based on a different reference year (November 2009 = 100).”
However, under Buhari, according to the NBS, Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 17.71% in May 2022 from 16.82% recorded in the previous month.
Similarly, food inflation rose from 18.37% to 19.5%, while core inflation rose to 14.9% in May 2022.
Historically, Nigeria’s inflation has averaged 16.2% between May 1999 to date.
A look at the historical data reveals that the current administration of President Bola Tinubu between May 2023 to date recorded the highest average inflation rate with 24.7% followed by Buhari’s second tenure between June 2015 to May 2023 with 17.33%. Obasanjo’s second term between 2003 to 2027 average inflation rate was 13.65%.
Of the five presidents during this period, Nigeria recorded its highest average inflation rate of 24.7% under the current Bola Tinubu administration, closely followed by Buhari’s 8-year administration with an average inflation rate of 17.33%.
- External Reserves
Nigeria’s external reserves are the total foreign exchange that is held on behalf of the government by the Central Bank. It is vital for the country to be able to fund its imports, meet forex demands and to a large extent stabilize the exchange rate.
Hence, for Nigerian presidents past and present, being able to leave behind a sizable and healthy external reserve is deemed a success.
Nigeria achieved the highest external reserve at the end of September 2009 at $62 billion during the late Yaradua administration.
When he took over from President Obasanjo, he met an external reserve of $43.1 billion, and by the time he died on the 5th of May 2010, the external reserve was about $40.3 billion.
Goodluck Jonathan presided over a robust external reserve profile but left behind $28.5 billion in external reserves by the time he left in May 2015.
Nigeria’s external reserve was about $40 billion in 2021 under the Buhari administration. It stood at $38 billion in 2022. He left behind $33.23 billion in external reserves when he left in May 2023.
Under Tinubu, Nigeria’s gross external reserves increased to $40.19 billion as of December 2024, up from $33.22 billion at the close of the previous year.
According to reserves movement data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s external reserves declined to US$38.74bn as of February 20, 2025, marking a 5.3% decrease (US$2.1bn) from the year high of US$40.92bn recorded on January 6, 2025.
- Exports
Nigeria’s exports are divided into oil and non-oil exports. However, oil exports account for lion’s share of Nigeria’s export revenues. On Nigeria’s exports, there is a dearth of data for the Obasanjo administration
In 2008 Nigeria recorded total export earnings of $88 billion. As of 2010, during the last year of late President Yaradua, export revenue was $80.5 billion.
President Jonathan, however, oversaw the highest years of export revenue for Ngeria recording, $99.8 billion, $96.9 billion, and $97.8 billion in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively.
But by the time he left office, export earnings were a total of $34.7 billion (end of 2015 which is attributed to him). It was also $45.8 billion at the end of 2014.
During Buhari’s tenure, Between 2015 and 2019, Nigeria as Africa’s top oil producer, generated $206.06 billion in revenue from crude oil exports, according to the Annual Statistical Bulletin of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC. The country’s oil export revenue, however, fell to $45.11 billion in 2019 from $54.51 billion in 2018. According to the data from the CBN, total exports (Free on Board “FOB”) in 2019 was $64.9 billion. As of December 2021, Nigeria’s export revenue stood at $45.9 billion.
Under Tinubu, In the first quarter of 2025, Custom generated N1.3 trillion in revenue. It’s more than twice the N600 billion generated during the same period in 2023
Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr. Bashir Adeniyi, who made this known, disclosed that the significant increase was not driven by higher import volumes, which have plummeted due to foreign exchange constraints, but by improvements in operational efficiency, transparency, andHe said
According to him, “Nigeria formally exported over N340 billion worth of solid minerals and agro commodities—a 38% increase. We’re aiming even higher for 2025”
- The exchange rate
Nigeria’s exchange rate has undergone massive depreciation between 1999 to date against the US dollar, following multiple devaluations at the official market, with even higher devaluations recorded in the unregulated markets.
Under Obasanjo, Nigeria’s exchange rate hovers around N90 and N110/$. Under Yaradua and for most part of Jonathan’s administration, it was between N110 and N150/$.
Falling crude oil prices, increase in import demand, and drop in foreign inflows have exposed Nigeria’s balance of payments to recurrent deficits, leading to more strain on the exchange rate. The fall, in the oil price which began in late 2014 triggered a set of devaluation of the naira falling from N165/$1 to about N187/$1.
By 2016, under Buhari, the exchange rate experienced large volatility leading to its naira falling to about N350/$1 and then N510/$1 before the apex bank introduced the Investor & Exporter which helped stabilize the rate for the next two years.
Between 2017 and 2021, the official exchange rate hovered around the N360/$1 region.
In 2022 the naira traded at over N420/$1 at the Investors and Exporters window, while in the parallel market it crossed N610/$1, representing an exchange rate gap of N190/$1.
In 2023, upon his assumption of office, Tinubu announced the floating of the exchange rate triggering another devaluation of the naira and collapse of the currency value. Today, which marks the occasion of his second year in office, the naira is trading for N1,590.74/$ in the official market and N1617/$ at the parallel market.
GDP Growth
Nigeria gross domestic product (GDP) grew from $95 billion in 2000 to $574.,5 billion in 2014 making it the largest economy in Africa at the time.
A breakdown of the GDP performance across the five administrations since 1999, shows Nigeria underwent massive economic growth under Obasanjo’s administration. The economy grew by over 81.0% and Nigeria’s GDP grew from $58 billion in 1999 when he assumed office 278.2 billion in 2000 when he left office. His administration achieved significant success in Agriculture, which grew by over 133%, industry, which grew by 28.3%, and services, which grew by over 113%. He focused on Telecommunication, which also grew by over 7000%, with the entry of telecommunication giant like MTN into the Nigerian market.
Musa Yar’Adua’s administration together with Goodluck Jonathan achieved over 52% economic growth. The economy grew by 25.9% under the former while the economy experienced over 26% growth during the latter’s administration. Under them, the manufacturing, and air transportation sectors recorded significant growth. The GDP grew from $278.2 billion in 2008 to $574.5 billion in 2014.
The Buhari administration prioritized the agricultural sector, albeit with marginal growth recorded. Under him, Nigeria economy experienced contraction leading to a decline in the nation’s GDP which stood at $326.8 when he left office. Nigeria recorded the worst average GDP growth of 1.1% under him.
It is worth mentioning that the current Buhari administration was marred by the 2016 global economic crisis and the 2020 covid-19 pandemic, which adversely affected most economic activities across the world.
Under Tinubu, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.84% year-on-year (YoY) in the fourth quarter of 2024, higher than the 3.46% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the growth rate in the third quarter of 2024, according to the NBS.
The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.37% and contributed 57.38% to the aggregate GDP. The agriculture sector grew by 1.76%, from the growth of 2.10% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The industry sector’s growth was 2%, a decline from 3.86% in the fourth quarter of 2023. In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023. Overall, the annual GDP growth in 2024 stood at 3.40%, an increase from 2.74% in 2023.
In 2025, Nigeria’s GDP is $188.27 billion with a GDP per capita of $806.84 down from $326.8 billion it was when he took over in 2023.
Despite year-on-year, economic growth and growth in critical sector, poverty is still widespread as Nigerians grapple with highest inflation and cost of living crisis in 30 years
A comparative analysis of the past presidents showed that the short-lived Yar’Adua administration recorded the highest average annual real GDP growth rate of 7.13%, followed by Obasanjo’s regime with 6.99%, while Goodluck Jonathan recorded an average 6.1% annual growth rate.
- Public debt profile
Nigeria’s rising debt profile has been a major issue in recent years, with the government taking more loans to fund its budget deficit. Nigeria’s public debt, which includes external and domestic debt, currently stands at N144.67 trillion (approximately $94.23 billion) as of December 31, 2024. This represents a significant increase from the N97.34 trillion (approximately $108.23 billion) recorded at the end of December 2023.
Nigeria’s public debt dropped significantly under Obasanjo. Nigeria’s external debt stood at a staggering $28 billion when he came to office. Much of this debt was inherited from previous military regimes and was owed to the Paris Club of creditors.
In 2005, the administration successfully negotiated a historic debt relief deal with the Paris Club. This agreement resulted in the cancellation of $18 billion of Nigeria’s debt, with the government paying $12 billion to clear the remaining balance. By the end of Obasanjo’s tenure in 2007, Nigeria’s external debt had been reduced to just $2.11 billion, marking a significant turnaround.
Late Yar’Adua inherited an economy with low external debt. During his tenure, the external debt increased modestly from $2.11 billion to $3.50 billion. This rise was attributed to concessional loans aimed at funding development projects, particularly in education, health, and infrastructure. Yar’Adua’s administration maintained a cautious approach to borrowing, prioritizing sustainability.
During the administration of Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s external debt rose significantly from $3.50 billion in 2010 to $7.30 billion by 2015. This increase was largely spureed by efforts to address the country’s infrastructure deficit. The administration secured loans to fund power projects, roads, railways, and other critical infrastructure.
Despite these investments, critics asserted that the rising debt levels were not commensurate to improvements in infrastructure and economic productivity. Corruption became a recurring discourse, with several high-profile cases of misappropriation of funds earmarked for development projects.
The Buhari’s administration ushered in a new era in Nigeria’s external debt. The nations external debt skyrocketed under him. When he assumee office in 2015, Nigeria’s external debt waz$10.3 billion. By the time he bows out in 2023, this figure had ballooned to $42.9 billion, reflecting an increase of $32.6 billion, the highest debt accumulation since 1999.
His administration’s borrowing strategy, at least on paper, was driven by the need to finance critical infrastructure projects, such as railways, airports, and power plants, and to address budget deficits worsen by declining oil revenues. However, many of these projects were marred by corruption allegations. The increasing debt servicing obligations further strained public finances, reducing the funds available for meaningful development.
By Q1 2022, Nigeria’s total public debt had risen to $100 billion in, a naira equivalent of N41.6 trillion.
Since assuming office in May 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has continued from where Buhari stopped with aggressive external borrowing. In just over a year, his administration has added $10.23 billion to Nigeria’s external debt, bringing the total to $53.13 billion as of December 2024.
Tinubu’s borrowing has been aimed at addressing fiscal challenges and funding economic reforms.
Key loans during his tenure include:
$6.45 billion from the World Bank for power projects, education, and renewable energy initiatives.
$1.57 billion financing package for healthcare and irrigation projects.
$2.209 billion external loan approved to address the 2024 budget deficit.
On Tuesday, he wrote to the national assembly requesting federal lawmakers approval N40.5 trillion in fresh loan.
While these funds are aimed at driving economic growth, concerns about debt sustainability and potential mismanagement remains widespread. Critics said that the endemic corruption will impede the effective use of these loans. Reports of nepotism, kickbacks, and highly inflated project costs have already surfaced, raising fears that borrowed funds may not be channelled to the appropriate quarter.
Nigeria’s debt servicing costs surged to N8.9tn in the first nine months of 2024, surpassing the pro-rata budget of N6.2tn.
In a recent report by Afrinvest, this increase is fuelled by the country’s rising debt profile, which ballooned from N97.3tn at the end of 2023 to N144.7tn in 2024.
According to Afrinvest, Nigeria now spends 58.3% of its revenue to service debt, further Nigeria’s fiscal balance.
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