Fubara’s recent move does not look like that of a person who wants to remain tied to the apron string of Wike. Fubara reckons it is better to be in the good books of Tinubu than be subservient to Wike.
Between 2024 and 2025, only a handful of states feature more prominently in the news and the media landscape as a whole than Rivers State. Aside from its strategic importance to the nation’s economy as an oil-rich enclave, the political atmosphere and the nerve-wracking struggle for control of the state by power-hungry and money-seeking political actors have made it an all-too-important and unavoidable subject in our national discourse.
The state was enveloped in crisis for most of 2024 with the governor, Sim Fubara, and the majority of the members of the state house of Assembly who are loyal to the former governor of the state, Nyesom Wike — who himself used to be the mentor and godfather of Fubara before their relationship hit a rough patch and things turned sour — were locked in a vicious power struggle. Wike had tried to use the assembly members to clip the wings of Fubara and whittle down his power after Fubara decided to wean himself off the former governor’s influence and drastically reduce his control over the state.
No sooner had the former allies become foes than the idea of Fubara’s impeachment was floated, worsening an already complicated and disturbing situation. The political attrition continued throughout 2024 with both parties doing what they could to assert their dominance and exert their influence. A tame and perfunctory effort was made by President Bola Tinubu to address the imbroglio and get the aggrieved sides to sheathe their swords, but nothing came out of the accord signed by the warring parties. The cold war between Fubara and Wike continued into 2025 but it was in 2025 that a dangerously monumental and highly contentious decision by the president changed the dynamics and trajectory of the feud. Instead of an amicable, reasonable and logical resolution of the matter, one rooted in constitutionality, the president decided to take full advantage of the crisis and use the fallout to his advantage while implicitly asking the parties involved to make wise decisions on how they want to proceed.
One thing that must be said here is that all through the crisis and mutual animosity between Fubara and Wike, Rivers remained peaceful and stable. The political feud did not really snowball into a full-blown upheaval and unrest that could have threatened the social cohesion of the state and brought its commercial and economic activities to a halt. So it came as a surprise to many Nigerians when President Tinubu, in March, decided to declare a state of emergency in Rivers. A state of emergency is usually declared when a nation or its subnational entity is grappling with existential challenges that threaten the well-being and survival of the people. Even though the government at the time claimed the political crisis in Rivers threatens the nation’s economic interest, anyone with a passing knowledge of our democratic setup and is aware of the peculiarity of the system knows that the claim of the federal government is absurd and patently false.
Also, it is not so much the state of emergency declaration that confounded sane and right-thinking Nigerians, but the concomitant directives and orders that followed. He would go on to suspend the democratically elected governor and all the state legislators, effectively shutting down the executive and legislative arms of government in the state in brazen violation of the Constitution. The declaration of a state of emergency is designed as an instrument of stability not a tool of political machination. Of course, this onslaught on our democracy sparked outrage and a flurry of legal bickerings. The president had his way, not less so because the judiciary was willing to look the other way as he tears down the wall that guides our democracy, brick by brick.
In September, after the six-month suspension expired, the governor and the state lawmakers returned to office. But while the crisis and tension that led to their suspension may have simmered, the political manoeuvring and gamesmanship have remained. No sooner had the legislators returned to the office than they defected to the APC. They were soon followed by Fubara. While Wike may have had a hand in the defection of the lawmakers to the APC, that may not be the case for Fubara.
Fubara, realising that the PDP has been severely emasculated by Wike and his cohorts, had decided to jump ship and move to the APC. The move means that he is no longer in the shadows of Wike, who wields immense influence in the PDP and would have upended whatever plans he has to return for a second term. Fubara knows that with APC, he will likely be covered by the grace and protection of Tinubu, which will insulate him from the shenanigans of Wike. Since his return to office, Fubara has made it a habit to sing the praises of Tinubu and even promise to do everything to ensure his victory in Rivers in 2027. The governor knows what tickles the fancies of Tinubu and he has been relentless in appealing to the president’s ego and emotions. He knows that, as a governor, the promise of victory in future presidential elections in Rivers will be enough to sway Tinubu to his side.
Wike has been rattled by the defection of Fubara to the APC, and this can be seen in his recent public remarks. At an event in Port Harcourt last week he warned that the agreement he had with Fubara to only serve one term, which was part of the accord signed last year, must not be reneged on. “Agreement is agreement,” he bellowed to a handful of people who were listening to him. The problem here is that a lot has changed between last year and now. The PDP he wields so much power over has been decimated by infighting and division thanks to his devious and abhorrent antics. But unlike the PDP, the APC is a different ball game. He does not wield any influence in the APC, and if he does, it is insignificant and infinitesimal, not enough to trouble Fubara, who has now joined the party. Whatever influence he has in the APC does not go beyond his access to Tinubu. He lacks any real power to influence the decision-making process of the party especially in the area of gubernatorial candidature.
Furthermore, he wants to reassert complete control over the totality of Rivers State, and he plans to do this by avoiding the dispute and rift that later characterised his relationship with Fubara, whom he played a crucial role in his emergence as governor. Fubara’s recent move does not look like that of a person who wants to remain tied to the apron string of Wike. Fubara reckons it is better to be in the good books of Tinubu than be subservient to Wike.
It is a catch-22 situation for the FCT minister. To sabotage and effectively neutralise Fubara, he will have to join the APC, but leaving the PDP will mean he will no longer be able to keep its suffocating hold on the party, which allows him to undermine, from within, the effort of some members of the PDP to address its perennial challenges and revive the party. Recall that Governor Makinde recently said Wike is helping Tinubu to destroy the PDP, which is part of a plot to emasculate the opposition and limit their threat to Tinubu’s second-term bid. And even if he, by any chance, eventually defects to the APC, which will not come as a surprise to many, it will prove a herculean task to get his way and edge out Fubara in the race for the party’s gubernatorial ticket.
24 hours is a long time in politics. 2027 general elections are still some twelve months away and as we enter the homestretch for the election, political intrigues will heighten and major actors in the political theatre will begin to scheme and plot how to achieve their objectives and outsmart their opponents and adversaries, it is at the critical build up to the election that we expect to see who will triumph between Wike and Fubara in the quest to control oil rich Rivers State.
Discussion about this post