As the 2027 general elections draw near, political actors, from Rivers to Kano, from Lagos to Calabar, have begun forging new alliances and rekindling old rivalries, with former adversaries becoming friends and long-standing associates turning into foes. Of the high-octane and frenetic political intrigues that have dominated national discourse since last week, events in Kano State have been the most fascinating and amusing.
It is no longer news that Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf, like many of his peers in recent times, is on his way to joining the All Progressives Congress (APC). In fact, the only thing left is the official announcement of his defection from the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), on whose platform he was elected as governor, to the APC. The development has now put a strain on the relationship between the governor and his godfather, Rabiu Kwankwaso, whose goodwill and popularity among the hoi polloi of Kano were crucial for Yusuf’s emergence as governor in 2023.
Kwankwaso is a man of lofty and enormous ambition. One of his ambitions is to become the president of Nigeria. His chances of realising this objective are slimmer, as seen in his first try when he threw his hat into the ring for the 2023 presidential election, where he came a distant fourth with a little over a million votes, 95 per cent of which came from Kano. Despite his poor showing in 2023, Kwankwaso has not given up on his presidential ambition and everything he has done since the election points to that. Whatever the case may be, he is quite aware of the importance of remaining in the public consciousness and staying within touching distance of other political actors, who have more clout, influence and national appeal than he and maintain his ability to project power, lest he risk sliding into irrelevance and oblivion. One of the best ways for him to do this is to tighten his grip on Kano state.
However, with the imminent defection of Governor Yusuf and his own uncertainty regarding his political future, his hold on Kano may be slipping away. Last week, at an event in Kano where he addressed his followers, Kwankwaso harped on the significance of his presidential aspiration and how it is central to his political future. He said he would only join a party that was ready to offer him its presidential ticket or a vice presidential slot. He is not making demands, he is fighting to stay relevant in a milieu whose political histrionics and dynamism are trying to render him inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.
Also, events elsewhere have contributed to taking Kwankwaso’s fate away from his hand. He now has to hope that the outcome of events somewhere else favours him and aligns with his objectives. The official defection of Obi to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has changed the whole calculations and permutations for the 2027 presidential election and the positive reaction to the move may have prompted Kwankwaso’s remark in Kano last week.
In the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, one of the tickets favoured and aggressively campaigned for was the Obi/Kwankwaso ticket with Kwankwaso as running mate to Obi. But that did not materialise as both parties, particularly Kwankwaso, could not reach a compromise as they both see themselves as political heavyweights, and they both felt strongly that settling for a vice presidential candidate was a downgrade. The outcome of the 2023 presidential election would later put to rest who the bigger, more influential and popular politician is among the two.
While Kwankwaso may want to think he is in a position to make demands and flat out request that any party he is decamping to hand him either the presidential or vice presidential slot, the truth is that he is in a difficult situation and he does not have the leverage to make such a demand. His options are also hopelessly limited but for a politician without the national appeal and clout, who depends on the cult following of members of the Kwankwasiyya movement that does not extend beyond Kano to maintain his popularity in the state and keep the smouldering embers of his pedigree alive, he can’t afford to be out of the public view for far too long.
His demands cannot be met by the APC even if he decamps to the party. Even though President Bola Tinubu will do anything to win re-election, and the idea of having Kwankwaso as his running mate and the guarantee of Kano victory he offers may be tempting, the mere thought of replacing a muslim vice president with another Muslim may be too much for even a rapacious politician like Tinubu to harbour. So the door is shut against Kwankwaso at the APC.
Since the other formidable party that can challenge the APC is the ADC, Kwankwaso’s message may be directed at the party, seeing as Obi is being touted as the likely candidate of the party, and he will need a strong northern politician as running mate. But with the impending defection of his protège to the APC, joining ADC could prove a costly miscalculation as it is not guaranteed that he will get the vice presidential candidate ticket in the party. Whatever decision he eventually makes, it must put him in a vantage position and keep him relevant in a fast-evolving and unforgiving political landscape.
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