The question has been jumping around ever since Governor Ademola Adeleke’s resignation letter became public in December 2025. People in Osun did not even wait for political analysts to talk. From Osogbo roundabouts to the long line of shops stretching through Ikirun and down to the quiet streets around Iwo, the same thing keeps showing up in conversations. Can PDP still hold Osun without the man who gave the party its first major statewide win since 2022?
This is not some light matter. It is not Twitter talk that disappears after a weekend. It is a real political topic that will decide the temperature of Osun in the 2026 governorship season. The ripple goes far beyond one politician leaving a party. It touches the entire structure of PDP in the state, the ward leaders who held the ground during the 2022 race, the money networks that kept rallies breathing, and the emotional connection Adeleke built with young voters who lifted him through the tough July 2022 governorship contest.
The moment his resignation letter dated early November 2025 moved from private tables to public conversation, Osun PDP entered a survival test it did not plan for. And that is where the story begins.
The moment the letter dropped and calm ended
Something shifted immediately after the resignation letter circulated. It was not only the national PDP crisis that worried people. It was the fact that Osun had just lost a sitting governor as the face of its ticket while the party was still trying to repair internal cracks that stretched back to 2019.
In the letter, Adeleke said the national leadership confusion made it impossible for him to keep faith with the structures in Abuja. That part was his national reason. But on ground in Osun, the effect was emotional. PDP ward officers in Ede North talked about losing the energy that carried the 2022 campaign. Some old hands in Ile Ife said the party should have prepared for this moment long before. And in Osogbo, many simply asked the same simple question. What now?
People close to the state party secretariat admitted informally that the resignation landed heavier than any internal disagreement. No one expected a sitting governor to walk out while preparing for a re election season scheduled for mid 2026. That is why the panic rose fast. PDP in Osun knew immediately that the governorship fight ahead cannot be the same without him.
The old foundation that PDP forgot to reinforce
Long before Adeleke stepped into the picture, Osun PDP had been fighting through years of inner division. The party broke into two main camps after the 2018 governorship loss. The reconciliation committee set up in 2020 tried to fix things but the peace was always thin.
When Adeleke returned strongly in 2021 and locked in the 2022 campaign season, his personal popularity pushed the cracks aside. Many people forget this truth. PDP did not suddenly become united in 2022. Adeleke simply became big enough to mute the noise. The structure responded to him. The older factions became quiet because his candidacy was the only real path to reclaiming Osun from APC.
So when he left the party in 2025, the old unresolved cracks reopened immediately. Some local leaders said it felt like the party was holding itself together with rope that finally snapped. The absence of Adeleke brought back the internal rivalry between old ward leaders and the newer groups who rose around the 2022 victory. PDP was forced back into a space it thought it had outgrown.
The ground people who do the real political lifting
One thing that makes Osun politics unique is the weight of grassroots loyalty. Osun is a state where ward leaders matter more than television interviews. The small rooms where they meet can decide the difference between an easy win and a confused campaign.
Adeleke’s machinery had a strong relationship with this group. People still remember how his campaign reached over three hundred wards in the state before the July 2022 election. The music, the rallies, the door campaigns, the T shirts people wore with excitement. These things are small when mentioned in Abuja, but they were the soul of the PDP revival in Osun.
Now the same ward leaders are not sure what direction to follow. Some want to stay loyal to Adeleke as a person. Some want to remain with PDP because the party has given them political roots since 2003. Others are waiting for the governor to announce his next political home, because they do not want to jump too early.
Without clarity from the ground, PDP cannot predict its own survival. And that is where the danger lies.
The emotional bond that cannot be replicated quickly
Adeleke did not only bring votes. He brought emotional connection. The way youths connected with him during the 2022 campaign created a type of brand that PDP never had on its own. It became a movement built around personality, music energy, family identity, social connection, and confidence that Osun needed a softer, more relatable leader.
People do not switch emotional loyalty in just a few months. That is why PDP’s challenge is heavier than some party elders admit. The youths who stood behind the governor during the tough vote collation night in July 2022, when results from Ife East and Boripe were turning the race into a tight contest, are now split between following him and staying with the party symbol.
If emotional energy leaves with him, PDP becomes a quiet vehicle waiting for a new driver. That kind of vacuum normally takes two to three political cycles to rebuild. Osun does not have that time. The election season is around the corner.
The ticket problem that no one wants to say loudly
PDP in Osun now faces one question that cannot be avoided. Who carries the governorship ticket?
A party cannot enter 2026 with a blank frame.
If PDP chooses a candidate too early, it risks creating a fresh internal battle. If it chooses too late, the party enters the election season without momentum. Either way, without Adeleke’s presence, the candidate must face an electorate that has gotten used to the idea of an Adeleke centred campaign for nearly eight years.
Several people who understand Osun politics agree quietly that PDP does not have a natural successor with the same pull. The party has experienced hands, but none currently holds the same public weight. And because the governor has not publicly endorsed anybody since his resignation letter surfaced, PDP has no guiding signal.
The national load that is dragging PDP down even more
The crisis inside PDP at the national level made everything worse. When a party cannot settle its national leadership for months, the effect spreads everywhere. Adeleke mentioned this national instability as one of his reasons for moving out, and Osun PDP has to live inside that storm.
The national court battles, the prolonged confusion around party ownership, and the inability to run proper national congresses all damaged local confidence. Without a strong national backing, Osun PDP cannot rely on Abuja to provide the type of funding and structure required for a fresh governorship battle.
This means that even if Osun PDP finds a candidate, it still must fight with a weak national umbrella over its head.
The APC factor that has quietly grown teeth again
The opposition is watching. APC lost the 2022 election but has been quietly rebuilding. By mid 2024, the party had already begun realigning its local leadership. When Adeleke stepped out of PDP in November 2025, APC ward leaders saw an opening that had not been available since 2021.
APC does not even need to be extremely strong to challenge PDP now. It only needs PDP to remain confused. That is how elections in Osun often go. When one major party is fighting inside, the other side grows by simply staying organised.
Some APC leaders have already been holding small community meetings in areas like Irewole, Ila and Ejigbo. These meetings do not make headlines, but they build quiet momentum. If PDP enters 2026 without a stable structure, APC may have a smoother path than expected.
The centre of power inside PDP that is losing grip
Every political party has internal power centres. In Osun PDP, the main power centre used to be the group that controlled the party long before Adeleke returned strongly. When Adeleke won in 2022, that power shifted. His camp became the new backbone. This shift created silent tension that the party never settled properly.
Now with his exit, the former power centre wants to reclaim influence. But political influence does not return simply because the previous big figure has left. The problem is that many of the younger politicians who joined PDP between 2021 and 2024 joined because of Adeleke. Not because of the older structures. Many of them will follow him if he picks a new home.
So PDP finds itself in a strange position. The old power centre is trying to stand again, but the new generation of politicians are not sure they want to return to that old style.
This pushes PDP into identity confusion.
The voter memory in Osun that never forgets
Osun people remember everything. They remember the narrow loss in 2018. They remember the legal battles that dragged into 2019. They remember the tension of the 2022 collation night. They remember APC’s long control from 2010 to 2018. They remember the promises and the disappointments.
Adeleke’s victory in 2022 broke a long drought for PDP. That memory is still fresh. So when he left the party in 2025, people immediately connected the dots. For many voters, PDP is Adeleke and Adeleke is PDP. This is not technically true, but politics is emotional and public memory carries its own power.
If voters believe Adeleke is the soul of the PDP story, then the party must fight double to prove it still has life without him.
The silent fear among PDP ward leaders
Many PDP ward leaders are not speaking publicly yet, but the fear is real. The fear is that if they commit fully to PDP ahead of 2026, and Adeleke later announces another political home, they will be stranded.
It is normal Nigerian political psychology. No ward leader wants to risk standing on the wrong side of a moving train. Until Adeleke makes his next declaration, these ward leaders will hold back their energy. That hesitation alone weakens PDP’s ability to run a fierce campaign.
Elections are won by people willing to move early, not people waiting for direction. And right now PDP does not have early movers.
The numbers that built Adeleke’s 2022 win may no longer sit with PDP
The numbers matter. In 2022, Adeleke won with strong returns from Ede, Irewole, Osogbo, Odo Otin, Ife East and parts of Orolu. These areas carried the emotional charge of his campaign. But most of these communities did not vote for PDP because of party ideology. They voted because of the candidate they connected with.
Now that the candidate is gone, the numbers are floating. They can land anywhere. They can divide. They can even weaken beyond recognition.
A political party that does not control its winning numbers cannot control its election outcome.
The painful truth Osun PDP has to accept
There is a simple truth nobody in Osun PDP wants to say openly. The party cannot survive a governorship election without Adeleke’s machinery unless it does a deep restructuring fast. Not normal restructuring. Not surface level unity meetings. Proper rebuild from ward to state level.
Even that might not be enough if Adeleke decides to join another party and takes his network with him. PDP will need a charismatic candidate, a strong finance team, national backup and community trust all at the same time. That combination is rare and takes years to build.
Time is not on their side.
The only path that gives PDP a little breathing space
For PDP to survive the 2026 election, it must do five things at once. It must settle internal factions, calm the older power blocs, energise youths again, find a candidate with quick public acceptance, and convince ward leaders that the party still has direction.
All these must happen before the mid 2026 campaign window opens. That is less than one year from the moment Adeleke’s resignation letter circulated.
That is a hard mountain.
Closing Thoughts: The big question that ends the story
So can Osun PDP survive a governorship election without Adeleke’s political machinery?
The honest answer is that survival is possible, but only in theory. In reality, the party is carrying a heavy load of internal cracks, emotional vacuum, leadership confusion and national instability.
If Adeleke announces a new platform, most of the energy that made PDP win in 2022 will follow him. If he stays independent for a long time, PDP still suffers from silence and uncertainty. Either way, PDP must rebuild from the ground up if it wants any chance in 2026.
This is the type of storm that decides whether a party becomes stronger or fades slowly. Osun will always remember this moment.
The final truth is simple, Adeleke’s machinery did not only help PDP win Osun. It was the spine that held the victory in place. Now the spine is no longer inside the house. The party must learn how to walk again. And the clock is already ticking.
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