Carabao Cup Fourth Round Predictions: Liverpool vs Chelsea, Man City vs Brighton and All Eight Ties Ranked

The Carabao Cup fourth round brings another exciting week of English football, with eight matches scheduled from Tuesday, October 27, to Thursday, October 29, 2026. Several Premier League heavyweights remain in the competition, but the draw has also given lower-league sides a chance to create memorable upsets against some of the country’s biggest clubs.

Liverpool versus Chelsea headlines the round, while defending champions Manchester City face an ambitious Brighton side. Arsenal travel to League Two outfit Fleetwood Town, and Aston Villa must negotiate a difficult away trip to Bournemouth. Elsewhere, Fulham meet Crystal Palace, Sunderland take on Brentford, Bradford City welcome Peterborough United, and Everton prepare for a demanding encounter with Newcastle United.

With a place in the quarter-finals at stake, the margins could be small. Squad rotation, injuries, home advantage and the willingness to prioritise cup progress will all influence the outcomes. Here are the latest Carabao Cup predictions, with all eight fixtures ranked by the strength of the predicted winner and the potential for an upset.

What to Expect From the Carabao Cup Fourth Round

The fourth round of the Carabao Cup is one of the most intriguing stages of the competition. The field has narrowed to 16 clubs, and every remaining team is now just three victories away from reaching the final at Wembley. Unlike league football, where consistency across an entire season determines success, a cup tie can turn on a single defensive error, an inspired goalkeeper or a substitute who changes the game in minutes.

The official fixture list confirms six all-Premier League encounters, alongside two matches involving clubs from the lower divisions.

That combination creates an interesting balance: established clubs have the advantage of deeper squads, but smaller teams can approach these matches with freedom, energy and the belief that a famous result is possible.

There is also the question of rotation. With league fixtures approaching, managers must decide whether to field their strongest available sides or give opportunities to players who need minutes. That decision can dramatically affect the quality of a performance, especially when two top-flight teams meet and neither wants to risk key players unnecessarily.

The Biggest Fixtures and Potential Upsets

Liverpool against Chelsea is arguably the headline fixture because of the clubs’ history, the quality available to both teams and the pressure that accompanies a meeting between two major English sides. Liverpool enter the tie after a strong run of results, while Chelsea have shown they can score freely but have also displayed defensive vulnerability.

Manchester City versus Brighton is another contest worth watching. City possess the experience of competing for major honours, but Brighton’s attacking threat makes them dangerous opponents. The Seagulls have already demonstrated their ability to challenge leading clubs this season, including their third-round victory over Manchester United.

Beyond those two matches, Bournemouth versus Aston Villa promises a contest between teams carrying confidence into the cup, while Fulham will look to exploit home advantage against Crystal Palace. At the other end of the draw, Arsenal and Bradford City have opportunities to make their quality and recent defensive performances count.

Carabao Cup Fourth Round Fixtures and Kick-Off Times

The English Football League confirmed the schedule in September. All times below are UK local times.

The predictions below rank the ties by confidence in the projected result, rather than by how entertaining the matches are expected to be.

Carabao Cup Fourth Round Predictions, Ranked

1. Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal Prediction

Prediction: Fleetwood Town 0–2 Arsenal

Arsenal have a strong opportunity to secure their place in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals when they travel to Fleetwood Town. The difference in squad depth and individual quality makes the Premier League side the natural favourite, even if Mikel Arteta chooses to rotate several regular starters. Arsenal’s recent defensive record has been encouraging, and their 2–0 league victory over Everton provides further evidence that they can manage matches without allowing opponents many clear opportunities.

Fleetwood should not be dismissed simply because they play in League Two. Their victory over Sheffield United in the previous round demonstrated that they can make home advantage count, and a packed Highbury Stadium could give the hosts an early lift. Their best route to an upset is likely to involve aggressive pressing, quick transitions and a disciplined defensive shape that frustrates Arsenal before the visitors settle into their rhythm.

The challenge is sustaining that intensity for 90 minutes. Arsenal can introduce technically gifted players from the bench, move the ball quickly between the lines and stretch a defence that begins to tire. If Fleetwood concede early, the contest could become much more difficult because Arsenal will have additional space to attack. The hosts need to keep the score level for as long as possible and make every set piece count.

My prediction is a controlled Arsenal victory rather than a spectacular goal fest. The visitors should create enough chances to score twice, while their defensive organisation could prevent Fleetwood from finding the net. Rotation adds some uncertainty, but Arsenal remain one of the strongest favourites of the entire round.

2. Bradford City vs Peterborough United Prediction

Prediction: Bradford City 1–0 Peterborough United

Bradford City have a compelling case to progress, particularly because their recent defensive performances have made them difficult to break down. Ahead of this tie, the club’s form included an 11-match unbeaten run across competitions and five consecutive clean sheets, according to the latest match preview. Bradford also defeated Peterborough 2–0 in their first meeting of the season in August.

Those results give Bradford a psychological advantage, although a cup rematch rarely follows an identical script. Peterborough have players capable of creating problems in the final third, and their willingness to attack could make the opening stages competitive. They will need to improve their consistency, however, because Bradford’s defensive discipline leaves little room for careless passes or wasted opportunities.

The home side should look to control the midfield, keep its defensive lines compact and attack when Peterborough commit players forward. Bradford do not necessarily need to dominate possession to win this match. Instead, they can focus on creating a handful of high-quality chances and protecting their lead once they find a breakthrough.

Peterborough’s best hope may be to score first and force Bradford to abandon their preferred structure. If the visitors fall behind, they could struggle to find the openings needed to overturn the deficit. Bradford’s recent clean-sheet record makes a low-scoring home victory a reasonable forecast, although a draw and penalty shootout cannot be ruled out.

My prediction is a 1–0 Bradford win. It is not the most glamorous fixture of the round, but the home side’s defensive reliability and previous success against Peterborough make them a strong candidate to advance.

3. Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction

Prediction: Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea

Liverpool against Chelsea is the tie most likely to dominate discussion among Carabao Cup supporters this week. Both clubs have the attacking quality to hurt elite opponents, and their meeting at Anfield adds another layer of intensity to an already attractive fixture. Liverpool arrive with four consecutive victories in all competitions, scoring 14 goals during that spell, while Chelsea have struggled to maintain defensive consistency.

Liverpool’s biggest advantage could be their ability to turn sustained pressure into clear chances. At Anfield, the home crowd can lift the intensity when the opposition begins to struggle, and Liverpool have enough pace and technical quality to exploit gaps between Chelsea’s defensive and midfield lines. If the hosts start quickly, Chelsea may be forced to defend deeper than they would prefer.

However, this is not a fixture Liverpool can approach carelessly. Chelsea possess considerable attacking talent and showed their scoring potential when they beat Leeds United 6–3 in the previous round. They have also enjoyed success against Liverpool in recent meetings, meaning the visitors should not be treated as an opponent that will simply fold under pressure.

Team selection could prove decisive. Reports ahead of the match indicate that Liverpool’s Florian Wirtz is a doubt after an ankle problem, while Chelsea will be without Cole Palmer through suspension. Several other players have also been reported as injured or doubtful, making the final team sheets particularly important.

Without Palmer, Chelsea may need other creative players to assume greater responsibility in possession and around the penalty area. Liverpool, meanwhile, must avoid allowing the contest to become an end-to-end exchange in which Chelsea’s forwards can attack open space.

My prediction is a 2–1 Liverpool victory. Chelsea have enough quality to score, but Liverpool’s recent momentum and home advantage give them a narrow edge. A draw after 90 minutes would not be surprising, especially if both managers make substantial changes.

4. Manchester City vs Brighton Prediction

Prediction: Manchester City 3–2 Brighton

Manchester City face one of their most challenging assignments of the fourth round when Brighton visit the Etihad Stadium. City have the advantage of playing at home and possess the experience required to navigate knockout matches, but Brighton have shown that they can trouble leading Premier League sides. Their third-round elimination of Manchester United underlined their ability to compete against high-profile opposition.

City’s attacking options should give them opportunities to control the game. Their ability to circulate possession, draw opponents out of position and create overloads in wide areas can put Brighton under pressure for long periods. Yet City’s recent defeat to Aston Villa shows that even a dominant side can be punished when its defensive structure becomes vulnerable during transitions. The hosts must balance their attacking ambition with enough protection behind the ball.

Brighton’s strength lies in their willingness to play rather than simply defend. They can move the ball through midfield, use wide players to stretch the opposition and exploit spaces that appear when City commit too many players forward. The visitors will probably need to be efficient in front of goal because they may not enjoy the same share of possession as the hosts.

Recent form suggests this could be one of the most entertaining matches of the round. A preview published ahead of the tie noted that City’s recent games had regularly produced goals, while Brighton had lost only once in their previous nine matches across competitions. Brighton’s recent record against City also offers encouragement, although past results do not guarantee another positive outcome.

My prediction is a 3–2 City win. The defending champions should have enough attacking quality to edge a high-scoring contest, but Brighton are capable of making the final minutes uncomfortable. This is one of the fixtures where a penalty shootout would not be a shock.

5. Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Prediction: Fulham 2–1 Crystal Palace

Fulham have an opportunity to take another step towards the Carabao Cup quarter-finals when they welcome Crystal Palace to Craven Cottage. The hosts have recently found a practical way to collect results, winning consecutive league matches 1–0. Those victories may not have delivered spectacular football, but they suggest that Fulham can stay organised, manage pressure and take advantage of decisive moments. Palace, by contrast, arrive after a difficult spell that has raised questions about their defensive reliability.

The challenge for Fulham is to turn their recent improvement into a performance that produces more chances. Their ability to keep matches tight could prove useful against Palace, but they cannot afford to become too cautious. If Fulham allow the visitors to control possession and dictate the tempo, Palace could gradually build confidence and find opportunities through their attacking players.

Palace have already demonstrated that they can beat Fulham at Craven Cottage. Their 3–2 victory at the ground in September is a reminder that this fixture is not necessarily determined by current form. The visitors also defeated Middlesbrough 3–0 in the previous round of the Carabao Cup, demonstrating that they can be dangerous when their attacking combinations work well.

Nevertheless, Palace’s recent defensive problems remain a concern. Conceding too many chances against a Fulham side playing with growing confidence could leave them chasing the match. Injuries and uncertainty surrounding the availability of several players may also influence the selection, so their defensive organisation will be particularly important.

Fulham’s best approach is to press intelligently, exploit spaces in transition and avoid giving Palace easy opportunities to counterattack. If the hosts score first, they could force the visitors into a more aggressive approach that creates further openings.

My prediction is a 2–1 Fulham victory. Palace have enough attacking quality to score, but Fulham’s recent results and home advantage make them a reasonable choice to progress. A narrow result is more likely than a one-sided encounter.

6. Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction

Prediction: Bournemouth 1–2 Aston Villa

Bournemouth and Aston Villa meet in one of the most evenly matched fixtures of the Carabao Cup fourth round. Both sides have shown encouraging form, and neither should expect an easy evening. Bournemouth’s home advantage gives them a genuine opportunity to progress, while Villa’s recent results suggest they have the confidence and resilience to handle a difficult away assignment.

Bournemouth’s recent performances have been particularly impressive. They have won four consecutive matches, keeping clean sheets throughout that run, according to the latest preview. Their ability to defend collectively while moving quickly into attack makes them dangerous opponents, especially at home. If they can reproduce that balance, Villa may find it difficult to create clear opportunities.

Villa, however, have their own reasons for believing they can win. Their recent run has included several victories, and they have demonstrated that they can remain competitive even when opponents apply sustained pressure. Their away form is another positive, with the latest match preview reporting five consecutive away victories. That record should give the visitors confidence, although a cup match against a strong Bournemouth side presents a different challenge.

The key battle may be decided in midfield. Bournemouth will want to disrupt Villa’s passing patterns and win possession in areas that allow them to attack quickly. Villa, meanwhile, should look to move the ball efficiently, stretch the home defence and exploit any gaps that appear when Bournemouth’s full-backs advance.

Neither side has an overwhelming advantage, so small details could determine the result. An early goal, a defensive mistake or a successful substitution may be enough to separate them. If the teams remain level late in the match, penalties could become a realistic possibility.

My prediction is a narrow 2–1 victory for Aston Villa. Their recent consistency gives them a slight edge, but Bournemouth are capable of producing another strong home performance. This is one of the round’s most difficult fixtures to call with confidence.

7. Sunderland vs Brentford Prediction

Prediction: Sunderland 1–1 Brentford

Sunderland’s meeting with Brentford could be a tightly contested affair, with both teams having reasons to believe they can reach the quarter-finals. Sunderland will look to make the most of playing at home, while Brentford’s recent results suggest that they are a difficult side to beat. The question is whether Sunderland can find enough attacking quality to turn a competitive performance into a victory.

Brentford have been particularly difficult to separate from their opponents. The latest preview reported that they had drawn all four of their league away matches and five of their eight league games overall. Their recent meeting with Sunderland in September also ended 1–1, adding another reason to expect a close contest.

For Sunderland, the priority should be to remain defensively disciplined without sacrificing their attacking threat. Their recent home matches have tended to produce relatively few goals, suggesting that opponents have sometimes struggled to create clear chances at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland’s 1–0 victory over Hull City in the previous cup round also demonstrated that they can find a way through a difficult match.

Brentford will attempt to exploit any gaps left when Sunderland move forward. Their ability to transition quickly could create opportunities, especially if the hosts commit too many players to attack. However, injuries and suspensions may affect both sides, making the confirmed starting line-ups important when assessing the final balance of the contest.

A draw after 90 minutes looks plausible. Neither team has a compelling reason to abandon its structure early, and the first goal could have a significant influence on how the remainder of the match unfolds. If Sunderland score first, Brentford may need to take greater risks; if Brentford lead, the hosts will have to find a way to break down a more compact defence.

My prediction is a 1–1 draw. That scoreline would leave the tie finely balanced, with penalties potentially deciding which side advances. Sunderland’s home support could make the difference, but Brentford’s resilience should not be underestimated.

8. Everton vs Newcastle United Prediction

Prediction: Everton 1–1 Newcastle United

Everton and Newcastle bring the fourth round to a close in a fixture that could be decided by defensive organisation and efficiency in front of goal. Newcastle possess the individual quality to threaten Everton, but their recent league results have been inconsistent. Everton, meanwhile, will hope that playing at home helps them rediscover the confidence needed to progress in a competition that offers a realistic route towards silverware.

Everton’s recent results have been disappointing, with consecutive defeats without scoring against Chelsea and Arsenal. They have also conceded two goals in each of their last three matches, according to the latest preview. Those numbers highlight a defensive concern, but they do not tell the whole story. Everton’s 1–0 cup victory over Wolves in the previous round showed that they can produce a disciplined performance when the occasion demands it.

Newcastle arrive with their own problems. They recently defeated Crystal Palace 2–0, but their wider league form has been less convincing, and they have lost three of their last six league matches. Injuries affecting players such as Lewis Miley and Tino Livramento could also influence their options, depending on who is fit to feature.

The home side’s main task will be to avoid giving Newcastle easy chances. Everton need to defend crosses effectively, remain compact around the penalty area and use possession more purposefully than they have in some recent matches. If they can frustrate Newcastle and keep the contest level, the home crowd may help them build momentum as the game progresses.

Newcastle, for their part, should look to use their technical quality and attacking movement to force Everton into mistakes. Their challenge is to maintain patience if the hosts defend deep. Rushing forward without adequate protection could allow Everton to exploit spaces on the counterattack.

My prediction is a 1–1 draw after 90 minutes. Newcastle may have a slight advantage in individual quality, but Everton’s home support and the unpredictable nature of knockout football make this a difficult match to call. Extra time is not part of the standard fourth-round format, so a level score after 90 minutes would lead directly to a penalty shootout.

Carabao Cup Fourth Round Predictions at a Glance

The table below summarises the eight forecasts and highlights the teams I expect to have the best chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

These predictions are not official results or confirmed outcomes. They are independent forecasts based on reported form, the scheduled fixtures and the available pre-match information. The rankings indicate relative confidence in the projected outcome, not the entertainment value of each match.

Which Teams Are Best Placed to Reach the Quarter-Finals?

Arsenal look particularly well positioned to advance because of the quality available across their squad and their recent defensive performances. Fleetwood’s home advantage should help them compete, but Arsenal have more options for changing the tempo of the game if their initial approach fails. Bradford City are another interesting selection, with their defensive record and previous victory over Peterborough providing reasons for optimism.

Liverpool and Manchester City are also strong candidates, although their fixtures are considerably more demanding. Liverpool must contend with Chelsea’s attacking potential, while City face a Brighton side capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses. Both favourites may need to score more than once to secure progression, particularly if their opponents find an early breakthrough.

Fulham and Aston Villa have opportunities to advance, but their matches could be decided by small details. Fulham’s recent results suggest they can manage tight contests, whereas Villa’s winning run gives them confidence ahead of their trip to Bournemouth. Neither should expect a straightforward victory.

Sunderland versus Brentford and Everton versus Newcastle are the hardest matches to predict because the available evidence points towards closely contested encounters. Penalties could decide either tie, making it difficult to identify a clear favourite with confidence.

Ultimately, the Carabao Cup’s appeal lies in its unpredictability. One unexpected result can change the quarter-final picture, and the teams that handle pressure most effectively may progress further than their league positions alone suggest.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. When does the Carabao Cup fourth round take place in 2026?

The fourth round takes place from Tuesday, October 27, to Thursday, October 29, 2026. The eight fixtures are spread across three days, with Liverpool versus Chelsea among Wednesday’s headline matches.

2. What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

The prediction is a 2–1 Liverpool victory at Anfield. Liverpool’s recent winning run and home advantage give them an edge, although Chelsea have enough attacking quality to make the contest competitive.

3. Who is expected to win Manchester City vs Brighton?

Manchester City are predicted to win 3–2 against Brighton. City have home advantage and considerable attacking quality, but Brighton’s ability to challenge leading teams makes this a potentially difficult fixture.

4. Can Fleetwood Town upset Arsenal in the Carabao Cup?

An upset is possible, particularly if Fleetwood use their home advantage effectively and frustrate Arsenal early. However, Arsenal’s superior squad depth makes a 2–0 away victory the more likely outcome in this forecast.

5. What happens if a Carabao Cup fourth-round match ends in a draw?

Under the competition’s standard fourth-round rules, a match level after 90 minutes proceeds directly to a penalty shootout. There is no extra time in the fourth round, so teams must be prepared for penalties if they cannot find a winner during normal time.