- The 10th National Assembly has failed to foster ideological diversity, weakening its opposition credibility and parliamentary vibrancy.
- High-profile defections from opposition leaders nationwide have destabilized party structures and consolidated power around the ruling APC.
- The presidency denies authoritarianism claims, blaming opposition weakness on leadership failures and internal disunity.
Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the country has operated a multiparty system that—though flawed—has generally allowed for political competition and alternation of power.
However, recent events suggest a troubling shift in this dynamic. Since the 2023 general election, more than 20 high-profile opposition politicians have defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
This development has prompted political analysts, civil society groups, and concerned citizens to ask a critical question: Is Nigeria heading toward a one-party state?
Parties previously dismissed for their perceived lack of structure and recent emergence surprised many by securing electoral victories in the 2023 general elections across levels.
The Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Young Peoples Party (YPP) performed remarkably well in the 2023 presidential, governorship, and National Assembly elections.
Other political parties also recorded surprising wins in various state assembly contests.
The 10th national assembly, once hailed for its diverse party composition, has fallen short of expectations, with little ideological debate or strong opposition emerging two years on.
Opposition parties, including the PDP, once seen as strong contenders, are weakening as members abandon their structures to join the ruling APC, diminishing their influence.
Opposition camps have seen defections from party leaders, governors, and legislators, with departures spreading nationwide, from the north to the south, impacting all regions.
In Delta State, a stronghold of the PDP, the political landscape was fundamentally shaken. On April 23, Sheriff Oborevwori, Governor of Delta, Ifeanyi Okowa (PDP’s Atiku Abubakar’s running mate in the 2023 elections), and the entire state chapter of the PDP defected to the ruling APC.
Vice President Kashim Shettima described the move as a “political tsunami unprecedented in Nigeria’s history.”
Akwa Ibom Governor Pastor Umo Eno not only endorsed President Bola Tinubu for 2027 but hinted at a potential defection to the ruling party, sparking speculation about other PDP governors following suit.
Within the last three weeks, more opposition governors have either endorsed Tinubu for 2027 or have taken steps that reveal their intentions to do so.
The development is causing serious concerns in political circles with many raising the alarm that Nigeria may be heading towards a one party state.
BUT WHY ARE POLITICIANS DEFECTING TO RULING APC?
The recent defections of opposition party members have been attributed to various reasons by many Nigerians and within the political space itself.
Many Nigerians have suggested that the shift in allegiance is driven by politicians’ desire to secure their 2027 tenure, ensuring both party tickets and support.
Local politics and the ‘Godfather factor’ also play a role, with many blaming the weakened opposition and internal party crises for the defections.
Rather than consolidate on their strengths, it appeared the opposition parties including the PDP, which was thought to be a behemoth with enough structures and experience to give the APC a run for its money are fizzling out, with their members leaving all their structures to defect to the ruling party.
WHAT’S A ONE-PARTY SYSTEM
A one-party system is a political system in which only one political party is allowed to exist or effectively dominate the government.
In this system, opposition parties are either banned or heavily restricted, and the ruling party controls all aspects of political life, often without meaningful competition or opposition.
Among the fears and dangers in the operation of a one-party system are reduced checks and balances, weakened opposition voices, politicization of state institutions, and increased impunity, of which can lead to a lack of political pluralism and limited democratic freedoms.
Political commentators have argued that if the trend continues unchecked, Nigeria could witness the consolidation of power in the hands of one political elite, reminiscent of pre-1999 authoritarian tendencies.
RESPONSE AND STRENGTH OF THE OPPOSITION
Recognizing the danger, some opposition leaders have called for a united front. Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President, recently proposed a merger of opposition parties to counterbalance the APC’s dominance.
Others, like former Ekiti Acting Governor Tunji Odeyemi, have warned citizens to resist the slide into a one-party regime.
“I think there is a deliberate agenda by the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led government, headed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to turn Nigeria into a one-party state,” Odeyemi said.
“To me, this is a dangerous trend, and it would not augur well for our fledgling democracy. No nation can prosper without a vibrant opposition.”
However, the opposition remains fragmented, — the Labour Party, PDP, NNPP, and others continue to operate in silos, limiting their capacity to mount a credible national challenge.
Others political parties that contested the 2023 general elections include Accord, Action Alliance, African Action Congress, African Democratic Congress, Action Democratic Party, and others.
When the 10th national assembly was inaugurated in June 2023, although the ruling party dominated, other parties still had notable numbers that could form powerful coalitions.
In the senate, the APC secured 57 seats; the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) took 29, while Labour Party (LP) claimed six available slots.
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) both earned two seats each; APGA and YPP managed one seat apiece.
In the house of representatives, APC took 162 seats; PDP followed with 102; Labour Party (LP) got 34; NNPP won 18, and APGA had four.
African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) both earned two seats each, while the Young Progressives Party (YPP) managed to secure a single seat.
Now, less than two years later, the number of lawmakers from opposition parties has dropped sharply, with APC benefiting the most from the ongoing wave of defections.
PRESIDENCY REACT
The presidency, in its reaction, labelled the Democrats as “partisan human rights crusaders and emergency defenders of democracy” over their recent criticism of the administration.
A release issued by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the president on information and strategy, rejected suggestions that the president is steering Nigeria toward a one-party regime.
“Contrary to the false claims in the propaganda materials in circulation across mainstream and social media, democracy is not under any threat in Nigeria. Accusations that the administration is moving towards authoritarianism are baseless and exaggerated.”
The statement said the opposition has itself to blame for internal chaos, lack of discipline and leadership failure, not President Tinubu or the APC-led government.
“It is certainly not part of President Tinubu’s job to organise or strengthen opposition parties.”
“We want to state that democracy is not threatened or undermined simply because politicians exercise their rights to freedom of association. Nigerians migrating to the APC and expressing support for Tinubu are doing so out of their free will, based on the belief that the reforms being executed are in the interest of Nigerians and the unborn generation,” he said.
INEC AND PARTY DEREGISTRATION
Since the 2023 elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not deregistered any political party, unlike what happened on previous occasions.
In 2012, INEC removed 28 parties, and the commission’s head then, Professor Attahiru Jega, defended the decision based on section 78 (7) (ii) of the Electoral Act.
The law gives INEC authority to remove parties that violate registration conditions or fail to achieve meaningful results during general elections in the country.
Following the 2019 polls, INEC delisted 74 parties for not being able to “satisfy the requirements” necessary for continued recognition after underwhelming electoral performance.
Although such delisting has not occurred recently, some believe the wave of defections might be linked to indirect pressure from agencies like anti-corruption bodies.
There are concerns the state could be subtly targeting powerful opposition figures, using state tools to pressure them into switching allegiance or softening their political stance.
WHAT NEXT? AND THE ROLE OF ELECTORATE
In 2020, the #EndSARS movement showed the power of civic engagement.
In 2023, youth mobilization for Peter Obi of the Labour Party further demonstrated a shift in public consciousness.
The coming years will be crucial: citizens must demand accountability, electoral reforms, and institutional independence.
Without active citizen participation, democracy could stagnate, although the wave of defections to the APC may appear to some as regular political maneuvering.
But taken together, they signal a deeper systemic issue—Nigeria’s democracy is at risk of slipping into a one-party reality.
To preserve its democratic gains, the nation must reinforce institutional checks, reform electoral laws, and foster a truly competitive political environment. Only then can the spirit of the ballot remain meaningful—beyond the ballot.
Discussion about this post