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Sanwo-Olu’s foolhardiness and Tinubu’s political gambit: Choosing between entering the ring and kissing the ring

Afolabi Hakim by Afolabi Hakim
June 9, 2025
in National
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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  • At least, unlike his predecessor, Ambode, Sanwo-Olu quickly found out that getting in the ring with Tinubu is tantamount to pressing the self-destruction button and realised that it is better to bow and kiss the ring.

Lagos State has a long and discomforting history of power tussles and political cold wars among the major players and Lords of the manor who are constantly scrambling to grab power and take control of the state’s resources, the jarring internal wrangling and political crisis that engulfed the popular and well-liked Social Democratic Congress (SDP) amid the cutthroat, no-retreat and no-surrender battle between Femi Agbalajobi and Dapo Sarumi for the governorship ticket of the party in the third republic was one such naked display of desperation for power. Both were eventually disqualified from contesting the primary. The crisis eventually paved the way for the victory of National Republican Convention (NRC) chief Michael Otedola at the polls and his emergence as the governor of the State.

Though the third republic was short-lived following the civil unrest and social upheaval that followed the annulment of the June 12 presidential election and the subsequent usurping of power by General Sani Abacha, the vicious power struggle and the inordinate ambition of many political actors in the State became its enduring feature upon the return to democracy in 1999. The commencement of the fourth republic also brought in fresh political gladiators and changed the dynamic of the state’s politics. One of the gladiators is Bola Tinubu who emerged as the governor of the State in 1999.

Since 1999, Tinubu has not only dominated Lagos politics but also controlled and, some will say, cornered the resources of the richest state in the country. Even after leaving office in 2007, having served two terms as governor of the nation’s economic nerve centre, he remains a formidable and irrépressible force in state politics. His hold on the state remains strong and brutal. However, his desire to remain the Alpha and Omega of Lagos politics has continued to pit him against his successors. His determination to retain the title of godfather of Lagos politics has repeatedly put him on a collision course with those who led and still leading the state after him. From Raji Fashola to Akinwunmi Ambode and now Babajide Sanwo-Olu, all three have at one time or the other seen their relationship with Tinubu become strained and sour because of their move to wriggle free from his choke hold and run the state independent of him.

Governor Sanwo-Olu is the latest victim of Tinubu’s vicious machination and political gamesmanship geared towards consolidating his dominance and control of Lagos. Sanwo-Olu did not learn anything from his predecessor, Ambode, who was humiliated and disgraced out of office after he tried to exert his influence and do things his own way in the city of aquatic splendour. Only Fashola appeared to have called the bluff of Tinubu and came out of the ensuing imbroglio somewhat unscathed. However, he was able to achieve this relative political freedom because of his laudable performance as governor and how popular he was among Lagosians. Tinubu’s associates and right-hand men reckoned that denying Fashola a second term ticket and forcing him out may spell doom for the then Action Congress of Nigeria led by Tinubu at the polls, thereby handing the state to Peoples Democratic Party on a platter.

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Sanwo-Olu had tried to use the cover of Tinubu’s fixation on his presidency and attention on national affairs in Abuja to advance his own interest and actualise his political objectives in Lagos State, but his moves culminated in a chain of events that not only left him in the lurch but saw him fighting for political survival. The failed impeachment of the Lagos State House of Assembly speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, was the incident that brought matters to a head. Obasa is a loyal lieutenant of Tinubu and was installed as the speaker of the house to do the bidding of Tinubu and protect his interest in the state. He was also there to keep any governor who wanted to undermine Tinubu’s influence and break free from his apron string, in check.

Sanwo-Olu’s decision to orchestrate the removal of Obasa was not only seen as an affront by Tinubu but also a plot to weaken his influence and loosen his grip on the state. Tinubu, who now wields enormous power as a president, may now have much of his attention taken by national issues but has not lost sight of happenings in Lagos. He quickly used his political manoeuvring and federal might to thwart Sanwo-Olu’s plan and reinstall Obasa. Many suspected that the whole impeachment saga had created a rift between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu. Rumours of the governor being ignored by the president became rife. These rumours were given vent to by the treatment of Sanwo-Olu by Tinubu during the commissioning of the 30-kilometre Lagos-Calabar coastal highway project in May. While Tinubu warmly and cheerfully greeted other governors and dignitaries, he bypassed Sanwo-Olu despite seeing the outstretched hand of the governor for a handshake with him.

However, as it is with Sanwo-Olu’s predecessors, this estrangement and rift with Tinubu is always followed by the intervention of some supposedly powerful characters or political block or group in Lagos, who are mostly loyal to Tinubu. They beg and appeal to Tinubu to forgive the intransigeant governor. The feelers we are getting now is that the Governor’s Advisory Council, GAC, had beseeched Tinubu to forgive Sanwo-Olu for his alleged transgressions and the president accepted their plea. Sanwo-Olu and other members of the council were said to have prostrated before Tinubu to beg for his forgiveness. At least, unlike his predecessor, Ambode, Sanwo-Olu quickly found out that getting in the ring with Tinubu and battling for control of Lagos with him is tantamount to pressing the self-destruction button and realised that it is better to bow and kiss the ring.

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