There are no off-seasons in Nigerian politics. Every handshake, every silence, and every absence means something. As the country pushes through economic hardship and escalating security tensions, the political elite have already turned their eyes to one date: February 2027. Not because the current government has failed, nor because a coup is brewing, but because power never rests.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has not formally declared his 2027 ambition, but his party has made it clear: he is their man.
That leaves just one real question in the ruling party’s corridors of power: who will run with him? Behind the façade of unity, alliances are fraying, loyalties are shifting, and powerful interests are laying the groundwork for a political reshuffle.
Beyond the APC, a coalition of opposition forces is quietly stirring. Familiar names are meeting behind closed doors. Posters are surfacing where no campaigns have begun. Something is being built — slowly, deliberately, and with the weight of past failures pushing it forward.
This article delves into the quiet moves, coded messaging, and high-stakes calculations shaping Nigeria’s 2027 election cycle.
TINUBU’S STRONG START AND SINKING SYMPATHY
Tinubu’s first two years in office have been a tale of paradoxes. On one hand, global financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF lauded his bold decisions—removing fuel subsidies, floating the naira, and restructuring fiscal policies that previous presidents tiptoed around. Foreign direct investment inched upward; the Central Bank regained some semblance of order.
Yet at home, these policies came with pain. By mid-2025, fuel hovered around ₦950 per litre. Inflation reached a 20-year high. Bread became luxury. Electricity tariffs were revised upward. Unions protested. Social media boiled with fury.
Many believed this was the “necessary evil” of reform. Others saw it as a betrayal by a man who campaigned as the saviour of the masses.
And amid the brewing discontent, new power blocs began to quietly ask: Is he still our best bet in 2027?
THE MAN IN THE SHADOWS: KASHIM SHETTIMA’S UNCERTAIN ROAD
In the North-East, the unease wasn’t subtle. Vice President Kashim Shettima, who had dutifully defended Tinubu’s policies at public forums, suddenly began to appear less frequently at party functions.
In one Abuja APC meeting in April 2025, a video surfaced of party chieftains discussing Tinubu’s potential replacement for Shettima. The preferred alternative? A Christian candidate from the North-Central zone.
APC’s media adviser, Bayo Onanuga, attempted damage control, dismissing rumours of a vice-presidential switch. But his words rang more like placeholders than promises.
Yet the silence from Shettima himself—no press conference, no denial, no strategic rebuttal—spoke volumes. Was he biding his time? Was he blindsided?
Or worse—was he being quietly pushed aside?
THE APC’S BIG GAMBLE: STICK OR SWITCH
In APC, internal dynamics have begun to shift.
Party insiders say that Tinubu has not yet decided on his 2027 VP—but he is open to options. Some governors from North-Central (Kogi, Niger, and Kwara) have begun lobbying for the VP slot—especially Christian candidates.
A scoop states Tinubu may pick Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Kano governor, as his partner in 2027 to steady relations across the North.
Other Names being floated include:
- Edward David Onoja, former Kogi Deputy Governor
- George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation
- Simon Lalong, former Plateau Governor
This move is seen as a direct challenge to Shettima—and a signal that APC may rebrand the 2027 ticket without altering the presidential slot.
It’s risky. Alienating the North-East could fracture the APC coalition. But balancing religion and regional equity might be the only way Tinubu survives a united opposition.
EL-RUFAI: FROM APC ICON TO REBEL GENERAL
While Shettima kept his distance, another northern power player lunged straight into battle.
Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna, one-time Tinubu loyalist, and architect of the APC’s national spread in the early 2010s, officially defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in March 2025. In a press briefing in Minna, he didn’t mince words:
“President Tinubu has lost the moral right to seek re-election. Nigerians are hungry. The promises are broken. We must rescue this country.”
Within weeks, El-Rufai was not just a member of SDP—he was redesigning it. Insiders say he’s positioning it as a credible third-force, untainted by PDP’s past or APC’s chaos.
In late April, posters bearing his face and the slogan “Reset Nigeria” surfaced in Gombe, Taraba, and parts of Borno. It was subtle. But it was serious.
Some even say El-Rufai is exploring alliances not just with SDP members—but with political orphans from APC, PDP, and LP. He may not be the front-runner, but he wants to be kingmaker—or king.
THE OPPOSITION’S DANGEROUS ROMANCE: ATIKU, OBI, AND THE MATH
For a while, opposition in Nigeria has been more reactive than strategic. But that is changing.
In mid-May 2025, a hush-hush meeting in Lagos brought together an unlikely trio: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and a representative of Nasir El-Rufai. The meeting, though unconfirmed publicly, was leaked to the press within days. The agenda? A grand coalition to end Tinubu’s presidency.
The Plan:
- Atiku brings money, networks, and northern base.
- Obi brings the youth, urban voters, and diaspora sympathy.
- El-Rufai brings structure and strategy.
It sounds brilliant on paper—but beneath it lies years of rivalry, ideological friction, and regional distrust.
Obi’s camp is cautious. His 2023 voters—mostly young, independent, and faith-based—may not forgive him for aligning with “old order” Atiku. Atiku, meanwhile, is still bruised from two losses in 2019 and 2023. He believes 2027 may be his final shot.
Yet the coalition continues. A committee was set up in June 2025 to evaluate ticket-sharing formulas. Word on the street is that:
- If Atiku leads, Obi might settle for VP.
- If Obi insists on leading, Atiku may walk—and El-Rufai becomes Plan B.
It’s a delicate romance, with every ego one misstep away from implosion.
Beyond Major Parties: Titans and Wildcards
Key figures lurk on other sidelines:
Goodluck Jonathan: former president lobbied to run again. His wife suggests he won’t, but the idea resists fade .
Rotimi Amaechi: ex‑Minister, Rivers State grandee, being talked about for Tempting SDP or Obomination pairing with El‑Rufai
Bukola Saraki: ex-Senate President, mid-west juggernaut, remains in the mix.
THE SOUTH-WEST DILEMMA: WHO DEFENDS THE JAGABAN?
Back in Tinubu’s home base, the Yoruba South-West, loyalty to him remains strong, but not monolithic.
Rising stars like Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos) and Governor Dapo Abiodun (Ogun) are expected to publicly back Tinubu’s 2027 bid. But some younger Yoruba voices—especially in civil society—have begun to express doubts.
Meanwhile, whispers in APC circles suggest that Tinubu may be grooming Seyi Tinubu, his son, for a longer game. Though not in formal politics yet, Seyi’s growing presence in digital economy discussions and media space has raised eyebrows.
For many Yoruba elders, the 2027 project is about defending their own. For younger progressives, it may be the test of whether Yoruba loyalty is blind—or earned.
SEYI MAKINDE: THE WILDCARD IN THE WEST
While Tinubu wrestles with perception and policy, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State (PDP) has been quietly building a new kind of political capital.
Clean image, technocratic governance, and a foot in both old and new political orders have made him a darling of youth forums and a respected figure among southern elites.
In May 2025, posters emerged with the slogan:
“Makinde–Obi 2027: Youth and Vision”
His team denied involvement. But multiple youth groups claimed responsibility. By June, his name was on the shortlist for both PDP’s national convention and coalition VP possibilities.
Should the opposition falter, Makinde could rise as a unifying, third-party savior—especially for younger Nigerians exhausted by APC–PDP bipolarity.
The Road Ahead: Stakes, Strategies, and Scenarios
APC Game Plan
- Stick with Shettima ➝ manage Northeast drama
- Swap to Kwankwaso/Governor ➝ appease power blocs, reposition alliance
- Pick a North-Central Christian ➝ broaden religious/religious balance, risk base anger
Opposition Moves
- Full coalition (Atiku–Obi–Rufai–Makinde)
- Partial alliance (Obi-VP under Atiku ticket)
- Third force (El‑Rufai/Amaechi ticket)
Wild Cards
- Jonathan run
- Youth revolt turning ballot into upheaval.
Grand Finale: Who’s Shaping 2027 Now?
Within APC: The VP slot is contested territory. Shettima stands his ground — for now.
Within opposition: Umbrella is forming but fractured by competing egos & regional demands.
Among the people: 2027 will be tested in markets and streets — not just party offices.
Conclusion: 2027 Isn’t Tomorrow. It’s Today
By mid‑2025, the jousting zones are set, alliances income delay, and the question is no longer if Tinubu runs again — but with whom and if Nigerians will vote for them this time.
As the plotlines mature, so does the narrative: can Tinubu hold his coalition together, or will internal and external rivals fracture the APC? Will the opposition mold unity out of chaos? And above all — will voters be driven by hope … or despair?
Nigeria’s next act begins now.
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