- Tinubu may have performed disturbingly below par when it comes to governance and tackling the myriad of challenges Nigerians are facing, but when it comes to his re-election, he has his gaze fixed on the political chessboard and he is making the perfect move, moving his pieces in the right direction to ensure his victory.
The year 2027 is a most pregnant and baleful one for people and the country. The questionable endorsement of President Tinubu for a second term in less than two years into office, the fear of Nigeria becoming a one-party state, the dubious wave of defection, the intra and inter-party wrangling, the strident noise of a coalition and the likelihood of its materialisation and the devil-may-care aura of desperados in the political space, all add up to create suspense and drama.
Though the 2027 election is still some eighteen months away, the political horse-trading and forging of alliances that characterise the build-up to the general election have begun in earnest. While President Tinubu is making moves to consolidate his power and win re-election, opposition parties are also plotting to oust him from office. To unseat President Bola Tinubu, politicians from opposition parties are mulling a coalition.
Yesterday, the media was awash with reports of the resignation of former governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Ganduje, as the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress. Even though many were taken aback by the development, it’s a move that has been in the works for some time now, as President Tinubu moved swiftly and deftly to remove all encumbrances that could impede his re-election and consolidate his grip on power.
Kwankwaso barter influence and clout for power
Rabiu Kwankwaso, also a former governor of Kano State, and Ganduje are archrivals and they rarely see eye to eye. As it happened, the APC lost both the governorship and presidential elections in Kano State to the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). The loss of Kano State to the NNPP is a fatal blow to the NNPC. They not only lost a symbolic state but a strategic one, which holds enormous electoral value and importance for anyone vying for the presidency. Realising this Tinubu began putting plans in motion to nick the state in 2027.
Wooing and co-opting Kwankwaso
Kwankwaso enjoys a cult following in Kano with his Kwankwasiyya movement, and this translates to a political tool to gain power. A couple of months after the 2023 presidential election, Kwankwaso met with Tinubu at the presidential Villa. After the first meeting in 2023, which the public was aware of, Kwankwaso reportedly had more secret meetings with Tinubu, and the agenda of the people was how to facilitate his defection to the APC.
Kwankwaso gave conditions to join the APC
Ganduje and Kwankwaso were once allies and had a cordial and smooth relationship during their days in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Kwankwaso governed Kano between 1999 and 2003. Ganduje was the deputy of Kwankwaso when the latter led the state again between 2011 and 2015. Their relationship became strained after Ganduje succeeded Kwankwaso as the governor of Kano State in 2015. Their relationship deteriorated so fast that they moved from friends and allies to vicious, malicious, hate-filled and irreconcilable foes.
During their meetings, Kwankwaso was said to have told Tinubu that he would only join APC if Ganduje is removed as the chairman of the party.
“You know Kwankwaso gave the president one condition for rejoining the APC: Ganduje’s removal as national chairman. With Ganduje in charge, Kwankwaso couldn’t assume party leadership in Kano,” Daily Trust quoted a source familiar with the matter as saying.
Ganduje was forced out.
Contrary to the reason given for his resignation due to health challenges, Ganduje was said to have been forced out by Tinubu to pave the way for Kwankwaso’s defection to the party. Permutation and calculation for the 2027 presidential election are key to the removal of Ganduje. Tinubu was said to have acted fast because Kwankwaso was already approached by the coalition led by former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, and he was already considering joining the coalition.
According to Daily Trust, the upcoming APC congress may have influenced the decision. Tinubu may have realised that retaining Ganduje would make it harder to bring Kwankwaso and other political heavyweights from various states into the APC. Without state structures to offer, these figures would be unlikely to join.
Ganduje’s tenure marred by crisis
Ganduje took over the national leadership of the ruling party in August 2023 following the controversial presidential election. The erstwhile governor was tasked to ensure unifying the party members.
However, Ganduje’s tenure was dogged by allegations of mismanagement and internal divisions. He also became the villain for his role in the crisis that nearly engulfed the party earlier this month, when he said Tinubu would be the party’s candidate in 2027 while deliberately declining to mention that Mr Shettima would be the running mate.
The conduct immediately strained the relationship between Shettima and Ganduje, with party sources claiming the incident played a role in the former Kano governor’s ouster as the ruling party chairman.
Ganduje out, Dalori in
Meanwhile, the APC is set to announce the party’s Deputy Chairman (North), Ali Dalori, as the Acting National Chairman following Ganduje’s resignation.
Punch reports that “Some APC leaders met at the Presidential Villa, where Ali Dalori was announced as the acting National Chairman, per the party’s constitution.
“According to the constitution, when the Chairman resigns, the Deputy Chairman from his zone, in this case, the Deputy Chairman (North), assumes the position in an acting capacity.”
Tinubu begins moving the pieces into place.
The majority of politicians in Nigeria only live for the election season. In fact, they start preparing for the next election the moment one is concluded and the winners announced. Tinubu perfectly embodies this trend with beastly precision. His moves and actions are motivated by the next presidential election and how to win it.
From bringing opposition politicians, especially governors into his fold, to undermining opposition figures, Tinubu has shown he is not leaving anything to chance and he will leave no stone unturned in his bid to win a second term. Having lost Kano in the last election, he understands that he cannot afford to let the opposition take such an important state in the next presidential election if he is to stand any chance of overcoming the electoral storm in his way.
To take Kano, he realises that political manoeuvring and strategic alliances will help him achieve his political goals rather than brawn and might. He understands that using the federal might and power of his office may not do the trick in a battleground state like Kano if the most influential politician in the state is in the camp of the opposition.
Tinubu knows that Kwankwaso has more political influence, clout and heft than Ganduje. He has an army of devoted followers who will die for his cause. Having him by his side will offer him more than whatever Ganduje will bring to the table and will nudge him closer to his goal of not just winning Kano but a second term.
Tinubu may have performed disturbingly below par when it comes to governance and tackling the myriad of challenges Nigerians are facing, but when it comes to his re-election, he has his gaze fixed on the political chessboard and he is making the perfect move, moving his pieces in the right direction to ensure his victory.
Discussion about this post