This time around it is not only the two aspirants that are involved in the political gamesmanship and the battle of wits and nerves, their loyal supporters have also stepped into the fray with their hawkish desire and intemperate agitation for the emergence of their respective principal as the presidential candidate of the party which is somewhat becoming a liability and burden for the party
On Saturday, leading figures from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party and nine other opposition parties met in Ibadan. The crux and focal point of what some dispassionate commentators and political analysts befittingly described as the Ibadan Declaration is the announcement of the opposition parties’ willingness and readiness to work in unison, forge an alliance and present a united front ahead of the 2027 election.
While other crucial matters that will undoubtedly shape the conduct and outcome of the 2027 presidential election, like the insertion of seemingly regressive and questionable provisions in the 2026 electoral acts and the untenability of the position of the independent national electoral commission (INEC) chairman, Joash Amupitan, following his exposure as an apologist of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and loyalist of President Bola Tinubu, at the centre of this gathering is the burning question of who the opposition parties will favour and rally round as its presidential candidate?
At the summit, the opposition parties, at least the major ones, resolved that their presidential candidate would emerge through consensus instead of an arduous, cumbersome and tempestuous primary election whose outcome could leave the party divided and fractured, defeating the very purpose of the coalition in the first place. The ADC, barring any unforeseen circumstances, is expected to produce the presidential candidate that the opposition parties will adopt and the race for the ticket of the party is clearly between two men: Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, and former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi.
The intrigues, scheming and horse-trading that usually characterise the high-stakes politics of clinching the presidential ticket of a major and leading opposition party have begun with frenetic intensity. This time around it is not only the two aspirants that are involved in the political gamesmanship and the battle of wits and nerves, their loyal supporters have also stepped into the fray with their hawkish desire and intemperate agitation for the emergence of their respective principal as the presidential candidate of the party which are becoming somewhat of a liability and burden for the party with supporters of both astute, prominent and accomplished politicians threatening to not support the other or even go as far as working against the party should their man not get the ticket.
There is no denying that Obi’s defection to the ADC has altered the calculations, projections, and predictions, and has also introduced fresh intrigue and drama to the 2027 presidential election. But his defection has come with its concerns, misgivings and doubts has many, especially his staunch supporters, worry that he may face an uphill task in trying to clinch the presidential ticket of the ADC with influential and political heavyweight like former president, Atiku Abubakar, also in the race for the ticket. Atiku has made known to all who care to listen that he will be contesting the ADC primary and will not be stepping down for anyone, even if the odds of winning the election proper are heavily stacked against him.
Obi is not a new face in Nigerian politics, but the outcome of the 2023 presidential election has added a few more notches to his political belt and propelled him straight to the top of the mainstream of Nigerian politics. The election saw his political mileage and capital soar. So huge is the support base he has that many dispassionate and impartial observers and commentators have reckoned that the coalition only stands a chance of defeating Tinubu if they field him as their presidential candidate.
Obi has always projected an image of a principled politician and disciplined public administrator who will not buy his way to power or indulge in shady and abhorrent acts to get whatever he wants. These dispositions and creed are what enamoured him to millions of Nigerians as they reflect in the way he managed the affairs of Anambra when he was the governor, in the way he thinks the country should be governed and how he has gone about his presidential ambition this past year. But the problem with his ways of doing things is that they are not the norm in a jarringly dysfunctional society like ours — they are the exception.
Atiku is largely seen and widely regarded as an establishment guy, an old warhorse and bona fide member of the old order who, many believe, played a crucial role in the socio-economic and political degradation of the nation. For many Nigerians, he is an embodiment of everything that is wrong with the country which they need to put an end to. He is a telling representation of the very anomalies and abnormalities that pervade the country which they need a departure from. But the truth of the matter here is that what the average Nigerian wants is not always in tandem with what the elites, the ruling and political class desire. Despite the uninspiring and unfavourable view of him among many Nigerians, especially working-class and upwardly mobile youths, Atiku is still held in high regard by many politicians and commands a lot of respect among northern elites.
While there are other prominent and influential politicians like former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, former governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, in the ADC who are also nursing a presidential ambition and hoping to use the ADC to actualise their objectives, either Atiku or Obi is poised to clinch the ticket as every prediction and projection touted them as the likely candidate of the party.
However, while the ADC presidential primary is still some months away, concerns continue to mount over the likelihood of Obi’s emergence as the party’s flagbearer if an open primary is conducted. Atiku has acquired a reputation for being adept at winning primaries even if he has to do it in an ugly and uninspiring way, while Obi believes his antecedents, goodwill and message of hope, reassurance and desire to turn the fortune of the country around are enough to get him the ticket. If the two heavyweights should go into a primary election based on their disposition, creed and belief, everyone knows who will emerge victorious, and that person is not Obi.
However, recent events and developments in the political space have changed the dynamics and calculations regarding who will emerge as the presidential candidate of the ADC. Recently, the former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, joined the ADC and there are reports that his defection to the party is part of the plot to get him to run as Obi’s vice in 2023 and the traction that the clamour for the presidential joint ticket of Obi and Kwankwaso has gained in recent weeks somewhat lends credence to this narrative. Observers say the newfound bromance between Obi and Kwankwaso has driven a wedge in Atiku’s plan to clinch the ticket through his machinations.
There is also the issue of the controversial zoning arrangement. The popular narrative and belief among Nigerians, particularly those of Southern extraction, is that it is the turn of the south to produce a president and the fact that Atiku is trying to contest again after he did in 2023 when it should have been an all-southern affair is at best strange and unfair and at worst selfish and dangerous. This narrative, which is not without logic or compelling reason, does Atiku’s interests and aspirations no good.
Whatever the case is at the end of the day, the ADC must not lose sight of what is most important which will include putting the nation and people above the base machinations of power-hungry men, which also require it to put its best man forward — someone who can send shivers down the spine and strike genuine fear in the hearts of the ruling party, someone who the people see as an embodiment of what is good or right about this place and can easily galvanise them towards the noble and eminent cause of rebuilding the nation — and to do this they will have to factor in the agitation and demand of the ordinary Nigerians, who believe the party is the only real alternative that is capable mounting a challenge against the APC, on who they want as the party’s presidential candidate. The party must get it right at the presidential candidate selection stage lest it risk suffering the same calamitous fate that befell the PDP after the 2023 general elections.
