Miami gets the fixture of the round. On Saturday, July 11, Norway and England walk out at Miami Stadium for a World Cup 2026 quarterfinal that pits the tournament’s form striker against the side everyone still expects to go deep. Kick-off is 5pm local time, 10pm in England, 11pm in Norway.
Neither team wanted this draw, and that says a lot about how far Norway have come.
How both sides got here
Norway are in a World Cup quarterfinal for the first time in their history. They finished second in Group I behind France, then knocked out Côte d’Ivoire in the Round of 32 and Brazil in the Round of 16, a 2-1 win built almost entirely on Erling Haaland. He scored a late winner against the Ivorians and then a brace against a five-time champion. Four games, seven goals. Stale Solbakken’s side have scored in every single match at this tournament, and conceded in every one too, nine goals against in five games, which is either a footnote or a warning sign depending on how the quarterfinal goes.
England’s route has been messier and, honestly, more interesting to watch. They topped Group L ahead of Croatia, Ghana and Panama, then had to come from behind twice in the knockouts. Harry Kane scored twice late to beat DR Congo 2-1 in the Round of 32. Against Mexico in the searing altitude of Azteca Stadium, Jude Bellingham scored twice in the space of two minutes, Jarell Quansah picked up a red card, and Thomas Tuchel’s team somehow held on for a 3-2 win with ten men for most of the second half. That’s their third straight World Cup quarterfinal.
Quansah’s suspension is the one confirmed team news story of note, expect Reece James to come into a reshuffled back four if he’s fit. Declan Rice, who had an early booking scare against Mexico, is cleared to play and anchors the midfield regardless.
The head-to-head
England have won seven of the twelve meetings between these two teams, Norway have won two, and three have been draws. Most of the history is friendlies, and it’s lopsided, England won the first four meetings by an aggregate of 20-2. Norway’s two competitive wins both came in World Cup qualifying, in 1981 and 1993. The two nations haven’t played each other in 12 years; the last meeting was a Wayne Rooney goal settling a friendly, with Jordan Henderson, still in this England squad, starting in midfield that day.
There’s a rougher stat lurking for Norway too: they’ve never beaten fellow European opposition at a World Cup. Six games, two draws, four losses, including defeats to Italy in both 1938 and 1998 at this exact knockout stage.
The numbers that actually matter this week
Haaland leads the race for the Golden Boot on seven goals, level with Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi, and he’s scored in each of his last 14 competitive outings for his country, 27 goals in that stretch. He’s also found the net in every one of his four appearances at this World Cup. Only two players in the tournament’s history have scored more match-winning goals in a single campaign than his four here.
Kane isn’t far behind on six, which is only the third time an England player has hit six goals at a major tournament, the others being Gary Lineker in 1986 and Kane himself in 2018. He’s scored eleven goals in his last twelve knockout matches at major tournaments for England.
Elsewhere in the England side, Elliot Anderson has quietly had the tournament of his life defensively, he leads the squad in interceptions, tackles, duels won and possession won. And Jordan Pickford is one appearance away from becoming England’s outright record World Cup appearance-maker, though he’s also conceded seven of the ten shots on target Haaland has managed against him at club level in the Premier League, a stat England’s defense would rather not think about too hard.
Odds and prediction
Markets have this close to a coin flip with a lean toward England. Bet365 has England as favorites, with most pricing putting them around 51% to win in normal time, the draw at roughly 26%, and Norway at 24%. Squawka’s own model rates England a bit stronger still, closer to 65% to go through across the full tie once extra time and penalties are accounted for.
The case for England is depth and a calmer defense; the case for Norway starts and mostly ends with one man who can win a knockout game by himself. Both teams have scored in three of England’s last three and in all five of Norway’s games, so both teams to score is the kind of bet that writes itself here. Harry Kane to score anytime is also getting attention, he’s racked up 4.19 xG and ten shots on target so far against a Norwegian defense that’s shipped goals in every match.
Whoever wins goes on to face the winner of Switzerland, Colombia, Egypt or Argentina in the semifinals. That’s a reward worth fighting for, but on Saturday in Miami, it’s Kane against Haaland first.
