Dallas gets the game nobody wanted to lose in the draw. France and Spain, ranked first and second in the world before a ball was kicked in this tournament, meet on Tuesday for a place in Sunday’s final, and this one has been building since the bracket came out.
When and where
Kick-off is 3pm ET / 2pm local time at Dallas Stadium (also known as AT&T Stadium) in Arlington, Texas. For fans following from Nigeria and the UK, that’s 8pm WAT/BST, and 9pm in Paris and Madrid. It’s the ninth and final match of the tournament to be played at the venue, which seats close to 70,000.
In the US, the match airs on FOX and Telemundo, with streaming through FOX One, Peacock and YouTube TV. Whoever wins books a flight to New Jersey for the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium.
Why this feels bigger than a semi-final
Spain have won three of the last four meetings between these two, and it’s not close on paper: Euro 2024 semi-final, 2-1 to Spain, with Yamal and Dani Olmo scoring. Then the 2025 UEFA Nations League semi-final, a wild 5-4 for Spain. France’s only real answer in recent memory came back in 2006, at the World Cup itself, a 3-1 last-16 win built on goals from Franck Ribery, Patrick Vieira and Zinedine Zidane. That’s the last time these sides met at this tournament, two decades ago.
So there’s a score to settle, and Didier Deschamps knows it. Win this, and France become the first side since 1990 to reach three straight World Cup finals.
Nobody has scored more at this World Cup than France. They won their group with a perfect nine points against Senegal, Iraq and Norway, then rolled through the knockouts, 3-0 past Sweden, 1-0 past Paraguay, and 2-0 past Morocco in the quarter-final. That last one is the number that matters most: three straight clean sheets after conceding twice in the group stage, against Senegal and Norway.
Kylian Mbappé is the obvious headline. Eight goals and three assists have him level with Lionel Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race, and he’s the kind of player who turns a tight semi-final on one touch. Behind him, Ousmane Dembélé, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner, has five goals of his own, and Michael Olise has quietly racked up five assists. On current form, this is arguably the most dangerous front line left in the tournament.
Spain haven’t been pretty. They needed an 88th-minute Mikel Merino winner just to get past Belgium in the quarter-final, 2-1, and it’s the only goal they’ve conceded all tournament. Everything else about their run has been about not giving teams a sniff, 37 matches unbeaten now, across competitions, heading into Dallas.
Mikel Oyarzabal leads their scoring with four goals and an assist, and Merino has chipped in with two, including that late winner. Lamine Yamal is the name everyone’s watching, six knockout meetings with Mbappé now across his young career, but he came into the tournament carrying an injury and hasn’t looked like the player who won Spain the Euros last summer. If he switches on in Dallas, Spain’s ceiling goes up considerably. If he doesn’t, they’re relying on a defense that has been excellent but an attack that’s been, by their own recent standards, sluggish.
There’s also the Thibaut Courtois situation hanging over the squad. The Belgium keeper, sorry, Spain’s opponent’s keeper, left the pitch in tears during the quarter-final after an injury, and while that’s Belgium’s problem rather than Spain’s, it’s a reminder of how physically taxing this stretch of the tournament has become for everyone still standing.
France’s predicted lineup
(4-2-3-1): Maignan (goalkeeper); Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Doue; Mbappe
Spain’s predicted lineup
(4-2-3-1): Simon (goalkeeper); Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal
What the numbers say
Opta’s model gives France a 42.1% chance of winning in regulation time, Spain 31.8%, with a 26.1% chance the game goes to extra time. Translation: this is close, but the data leans toward France’s attack rather than Spain’s recent head-to-head record.
For what it’s worth, historical head-to-head still favors Spain, they’ve won six of the last ten meetings between the two nations. But most of that history predates this current generation of players, and neither Deschamps nor Spain boss Luis de la Fuente will be paying much attention to matches from a decade ago.
France vs Spain: Head-to-head
France and Spain are familiar foes, having faced each other 38 times to date.
Spain hold the upper hand in their head-to-head record, having won 18 matches. France have won 13 times, while seven matches ended in a draw.
Their last meeting was the Nations League semifinal played in Germany about a year ago, when Spain thrashed France 5-4 in an exhilarating contest with Yamal’s brace sending them through.
France vs Spain: Last five matches
- Spain 5-4 France (UEFA Nations League 2025 semifinals)
- Spain 2-1 France (Euro 2024 semifinals)
- Spain 1-2 France (UEFA Nations League 2021 final)
- France 0-2 Spain (international friendly, 2017)
- France 1-0 Spain (international friendly, 2014)
The bottom line
This is the semi-final the tournament earned rather than the one the bracket handed out by accident. Best attack in the competition against the best defense, a Golden Boot race running through it, and two European heavyweights who’ve beaten each other in the biggest moments of the last two years. Whoever wins this one will go into Sunday’s final believing they’ve already played the harder game.
Kick-off: 3pm ET / 8pm WAT, Tuesday, July 14, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas.
