The 2027 elections in Kwara State are shaping up as a major test of political influence, with Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq preparing to leave office while rival camps compete for the governorship and National Assembly seats.
One of the biggest contests is expected in Kwara Central, where AbdulRazaq, the All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial candidate, is set to face incumbent Senator Salihu Mustapha, who has defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) following disagreements over the APC primaries.
The contest places two prominent politicians on opposing sides and could provide an indication of the governor’s influence as he approaches the end of his tenure and continues to serve as chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum.
Mustapha’s defection has added another dimension to the race, particularly as the APC seeks to retain its hold on the state amid disagreements over the selection of candidates.
Governorship race puts rival camps on opposite sides
The governorship election is also expected to attract attention, with the APC fielding the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Salihu-Yakubu Danladi, against PDP candidate Kawu Bolakale Agaka, who is backed by former Senate President Bukola Saraki.
Danladi’s running mate is Ogunniyi David Oluwaseun, while Agaka is paired with Fawenu Cornelius Olaosebikan Sunday.
Other contenders on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s final candidate list include Abdulmumim Yinka Ajia Olayinka of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, whose running mate is Ajayi Israel Awolowo, and former House of Representatives member Zakareh Mohammed of the African Democratic Congress, with Olawuyi Julius Olayide as his running mate.
The race will test the APC’s ability to maintain its political advantage and whether the PDP and other opposition parties can benefit from divisions within the ruling party.
For Saraki, Agaka’s performance could also indicate whether his political network can recover ground in the state after years of rivalry with AbdulRazaq.
APC ticket changes unsettle National Assembly contests
Beyond the governorship and Kwara Central senatorial race, the APC’s final list has revealed significant changes involving serving lawmakers seeking re-election.
In Kwara South, Senator Oyelola Ashiru, the deputy Senate leader, has been replaced as the party’s senatorial candidate by Adewoye Olalekan.
A similar change has occurred in Kwara North, where Senator Sadiq Suleiman Umar, who has served two terms and sought another, has been replaced by Kolo Baba Jiya.
Jiya, a businessman and philanthropist, previously contested a senatorial election under the New Nigeria Peoples Party.
The party has also replaced Mohammed Omar Bio, who represents Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, with Saidu Baba Ahmed.
In Edu/Moro/Patigi Federal Constituency, Mohammed Mamman, popularly known as Mamman Mohammed Tswako, has taken the APC ticket from the incumbent, Dr Ahmed Adamu Saba.
These substitutions have changed the electoral calculations in several constituencies, where the party will now rely on new candidates rather than sitting lawmakers to retain its seats.
A test of competing political structures
The candidate changes and defections have created a contest that extends beyond individual ambitions, with the APC, PDP and other parties seeking to convert their political networks into votes.
AbdulRazaq faces the challenge of defending the ruling party’s position while contesting a senatorial seat himself, making the outcome in Kwara Central particularly significant to his political standing.
Meanwhile, the governorship contest will test whether Saraki-backed forces can translate their support for Agaka into an electoral breakthrough.
The National Assembly races will offer a separate measure of the APC’s strength, particularly in constituencies where incumbent lawmakers have lost the party’s nomination.
Ultimately, the results will depend on the candidates’ appeal, party organisation and voters’ choices, with the contests set to shape Kwara’s political landscape beyond AbdulRazaq’s tenure.
